Monday Night Football

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Quite the Sunday, I’ll have a full rundown of everything I thought about the performances tomorrow. Wednesday will be updated with power numbers after I finish adjusting everyone.

I will have some early bets this week as I have a pretty healthy shortlist of games I like, and I will probably dive into some look-ahead lines again as I try to improve my process on really getting the early numbers this year. Smaller stakes, but it’s fun to be ahead, and if you’re right you can get some decent numbers.

It was decent weekend betting, and I'm still very mad at the Titans. Sometimes bad things happen when you get into bed with a bad QB. I managed to avoid the teaser landmines (NYG/CIN) in my main 6-pointer for the week, and I was very happy with how the Vikings, Bucs, & Cowboys looked for me.

My love affair with the Falcons was about as short-lived as a new meme format.

Every year, you get things wrong, and every year it still stings. So, in lieu of a full rundown (again, I’ll have that tomorrow), here is a quick list of my good and bad takes from the summer previews. I know it’s early, and some of these won’t fully flesh out over 18 weeks, but it’s fun to take some mini-victory laps and some self-flagellations today.

Andy was Right 🎉

1. Baker Mayfield might be ok without Canales. Sure, it was versus a very bad secondary, but he still made all the throws and used his legs to extend plays while not making the big mistakes that plagued him at times.

2. Vikings offense can hang. This is another one that may be labeled as an overreaction as early as next week when they play a good team, but this looked like a competent enough offensive game plan to win versus non-elite teams.

3. Cardinals Totals belong in the 50s. This defense is as bad as advertised, and Kyler Murray looked pretty spry. I think the offense has additional upside to improve as the year goes on. Hell, they may even use Marvin Harrison Jr. at some point.

Andy was Wrong ❌

1. The Falcons in General. I assumed too much on Kirk being back to the level he was last year. The injury, a new coaching staff, and a bad matchup vs TJ Watt & gang made me look stupid.

2. I was too high on Burrow. I didn’t lay the points, but as I said on the podcast, even with how highly I thought of Pat's defense, I made this game over -10 in my raw numbers. The wrist injury appears that it may matter for Joe and the WR injuries as well.

3. I may be low on Minnesota’s D. Same as above, they played the Giants so far, but the addition of Van Ginkel and a second year of Brian Flores running the ship makes me think I was wrong when I had them rated as my 28th ranked defense to start the season.

There are 100 other little things, but the easiest way to find them is by looking at where my largest power number adjustments will be for the week. The only other one I wanted to throw in was a deep sense of vindication watching Justin Tucker miss a long kick after SHOCKING Drew on the Baltimore preview pod with my low special teams number.

Market

Soft opener of 49ers -5.5 back in May that slowly worked it’s way down to as low as -3.5 before seeing some buyback on the 49ers.

The total was bet down to 43 over the summer (opened ~45) and saw some pushback trying to go down to 42.5. Currently up to 43.5 at some shops.

Injuries

Just OL Wes Schweitzer (hand) and LB Zaire Barnes (ankle) out for the Jets tonight, both reserves leave the depth at guard and inside backer a little thinner. Haason Reddick continues to hold out and won’t suit up either.

The 49ers will be without DE Yetur Gross Matos (knee) and LB Dee Winters (ankle), while S Talanoa Hufanga (knee) is listed as doubtful. They also have LB Dre Greenlaw, CB Ambry Thomas, and underperforming DE Drake Jackson on the IR for this defense. Also starting the year on the IR is OL Jon Feliciano.

Rookie WR Ricky Pearsall remains out on the Non-Football Injury list as he recovers from being shot in an attempted robbery.

Starting LG Aaron Banks (finger) and RB Christian McCaffrey (calf) are listed as questionable but expected to go.

Matchup

Strength-on-strength matchups are always fun. This 49er team was one of the most efficient and tough-to-defend offenses last year, finishing first in EPA/play and almost winning the whole damn thing. Purdy, Deebo, Aiyuk, CMC, Kittle, Shanny. It’s a lot to deal with.

The Jets, on the other side, had a top-3 defense, and outside of the Bryce Huff for Hasson Reddick pseudo-swap that isn’t working out so well, they have the important pieces back.

Two Matchups I’m excited for

1. Old Man Rodgers vs an already banged-up defense:

The concerns will be in coverage and tackling at the second level for the 49ers. Despite having good players at all three levels, losing Hufunga and Dre Greenlaw will make them susceptible over the middle, and a haggard but savvy QB like Rodgers may be able to pick on that with crossers and looks to the tight ends and running backs rather than forcing the issue along the boundaries.

2. The 49er pass rush vs a rebuilt offensive line:

Three new pieces on the front five for the Jets after they signed Morgan Moses, Tyron Smith, and John Simpson to help protect their passer. It should be an improved unit, but sometimes a lack of continuity and experience together shows, especially early on. They’ll have to slow down Nick Bosa and his new battery mate on the edge, Leonard Floyd, as well as Maliek Collins and Javon Hargrave inside.

Betting

I took a little 49ers 1st half -3 in this one. It's not a side I’m in love with, but I'm willing to fade a quarterback essentially off two years of not playing against a full-speed defense. My raw power ratings make this San Fran -3.8; I’m more interested in playing the rust angle a bit after seeing a few other vet QBs struggle after not playing much in the preseason/coming off an injury.