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It wasn’t the big Sunday I was hoping for after the Colts decided to start turning the ball over as fast and often as possible, but I still got a few wins and enjoyed the football.

I enjoy playoff scenario time quite a bit, but I usually have my eyes gloss over a bit when I run into the 5th or 6th tiebreakers (I’m not going to waste too much time speculating on the strength of victory three weeks down the road). Still, there are some races that are very much not decided as we go, including both top seeds.

Kansas City has two games in the next nine days and essentially only a 1.5-game lead over Buffalo with the head-to-head loss. Things could get pretty wild here in the last few weeks. With Mahomes’ ankle very much in doubt, this should be an exciting end to the year.

We also have the Steelers at the Ravens this Saturday. My rough math says that the Steelers would still stay atop the division with a loss (due to the third tiebreaker). However, they have the Chiefs to play yet, while Baltimore closes the year with the Texans and Browns. A loss to KC hurts them in conference and common opponent tiebreakers. Baltimore to win the division is NOT dead yet.

It appears that’s where the drama ends in the AFC. With the Broncos and Chargers winning while the Dolphins and Colts lost, the scenarios for the latter group to find their way in are pretty unlikely.

The NFC’s top seed is very much up for grabs as well, with the Vikes and Eagles sticking their nose in after Detroit’s loss. The Lions still control their destiny as a 15-2 tie atop the standings would still give them the first overall NFC seed, but with more and more defensive injuries piling up, they’ll need to make sure they don’t slip up in either of their next two road games. Minnesota has the toughest schedule left of the three teams, with the Packers and Lions remaining, and could end up falling to third in the division and be a 13-win six seed.

The Rams’ win and Seattle's loss were big for LA’s chances at the division. With games between them all, a wildcard spot seems like a tough sell for any of them, and all three NFC West teams are likely vying for the division crown as the realistic way into the postseason. The Rams play both the Cards and Hawks to close the year out after next week’s game vs the Jets.

Washington hanging on for dear life was massive for their wild-card life, but they still have the Seahawks and Cardinals right there if they were to take a nosedive. They host Philly this week.

My injury notes following yesterday’s games:

Chicago at Minnesota -6.5 -120 / 43.5

Chicago is just playing spoiler at this point in the season, but as well as the Vikings have played, this is kind of a must-win for them after Green Bay won and still has a head-to-head matchup with them remaining. The Vikings, as I mentioned, are still in the race for the overall top seed but can also drop down behind the Packers if they lose.

In the first matchup between these teams, we saw the Vikings team looking pretty solid and seemingly cruising their way to a win and cover before a disastrous final few minutes that saw an 11-point lead erased by a 55-yard kickoff return, a TD drive with a 4th down conversion, a successful 2 point conversion, a successful onside kick, a big gain to setup a 48-yard field goal (that was obviously made) and to boot, they did it with no timeouts. Hell, the Bears even won the coin toss in overtime.

Caleb's third sack of the day would end that nonsense, and the Vikings would again win a close game. I’m still not sure how good this team is, but the two sides of the ball seem to make up for each other when one isn’t having the best day, and in the end, they just keep winning.

Not a ton has changed ahead of the rematch, but as has been a recurring theme, the Bears are hurt up front. Braxton Jones and Ryan Bates will both miss the game with concussions. DT Gervon Dexter and RB Roschon Johnson are also listed as out, with RB D’Andre Swift questionable with a groin injury.

The Vikings did see CB Stephon Gilmore get a limited practice in on Saturday, so perhaps he plays tonight. He’s listed as questionable.

My fair pricing still makes this Minnesota -8 or so, and I lean toward laying this price with the home team. In another flip from the last time they played, the Bears are on their third straight week of playing on the road and are coming off a very poor defensive effort. I suppose parts of this defense is better than the Falcons, but after seeing what the Vikings’ offense was able to muster last week, I do like them to score a bit and will take the cowards’s way out of backing them and bet the team total over.

Vikings Team Total Over 24.5 -115

Atlanta at Las Vegas +5.5 / 44.5

I don’t fully understand why we’re doing a double MNF game at this point in the year, but I suppose it’s a blessing that I have something to watch that isn’t a “Desmond Ridder Revenge Game.”

Both defenses gave up over 400 yards last week in losses, but with Kirk struggling a bit of late and Desmond Ridder starting for the injured Minshews/AOCs of the world, this total is still sitting at a below-average 44.5.

As mentioned, Aiden O’Connell is almost certainly out for the Raiders, with Ridder stepping in. Maxx Crosby is done for the year. On the other side of the ball, star LB Troy Andersen is again out, and defensive linemen Zach Harrison and Ruke Orhorhoro are listed as questionable. It feels like a must-win for the Falcons, not just for their playoff hopes but for any shred of respectability they have left. Imagine losing to a two-win team playing their third-string QB, and it’s a guy that you let go. I’m not sure Falcons fans will sleep tonight if this one goes pear-shaped.

Here’s the Desmond Ridder DoorDash commercial that I can’t stop thinking about when he gets mentioned:

With Maxx Crosby sidelined for the year and the Atlanta pass rush only showing up about every six weeks, both QBs should have some time in the pocket here. I don’t expect highly efficient offense, but Kirk has been ok when he’s not pressured, and Ridder has a freak in Brock Bowers going up against a beat-up defense. Unless the Falcons want to put their CB1 on a tight end and let Jakobi Meyers run loose, I don’t see how Bowers doesn’t put up his usual numbers.

Again, we just saw the Falcons defense allow Justin Jefferson to catch seven balls on seven targets for 132 yards and two touchdowns. He was NOT the Vikings leading receiver in any of the four categories mentioned.

I will probably catch this one on the 30-minute NFL+ replay tomorrow, but both teams can get eaten up in the passing game, especially across the middle by the tight ends. Making it more alluring is how poor they’ve been in the red zone. Again, looking back at last week’s games, these two defenses combined to stop ZERO out of the seven red-zone possessions faced. Seven touchdowns.

I'm going to play both Bowers and Pitts anytime TD prices, but I'm also putting them together for a fun SGP for smaller stakes.

Bowers and Pitts both to score +925

(and because someone in a group chat came over the top and posted it: a few bucks on both to score 2 TDs +21900)