God, I forgot what a pain in the ass these are to make. A bunch of new front offices, a bunch of teams that don’t always draft what they need, and a handful of teams that need quarterbacks playing musical chairs with whatever’s left after the top three picks. Still had fun.

Mock Draft 1.0

Every year I say I’m going to do this in like January, and every year I don’t. So, at least I’m consistent. I will say, that for the most part, the mock drafts that come out prior to free agency are fairly worthless and just serve to drive clicks and pageviews; but that’s how it goes.

I HATE doing mocks with trades in them, but considering the smoke/fire surrounding the Vikings and J.J. McCarthy, I think I’d be doing the world a disservice by not putting something together there. I don’t want to do big old explanations for each pick, so I won’t. Starting the same as everyone: quarterback, quarterback, quarterback.

1. Chicago - Caleb Williams, QB, USC

2. Washington - Drake Maye, QB, UNC

3. New England - Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU

4. Arizona - Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State

5. Minnesota - J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan -TRADE-

   The Vikes are likely competing with at least two other teams to get the fourth QB on the board with Denver, Las Vegas and maybe even the Giants looking at this spot. I have no idea what it takes to pry this away from the Chargers, especially considering the new GM/Coach, but we’ll mock it anyway. Minnesota decides that it’s going to try to win in ‘25.

6. NY Giants - Malik Nabers, WR, LSU.

   Not a bad consolation prize, but it's a tough year to be in this spot with all five teams in front of you taking positions you have needs at.

7. Tennesse - Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame. 

   no-brainer

8. Atlanta - Dallas Turner, Edge, Bama.

   You’d think this is the first defensive player off the board considering their makeup, but you do never know with Atlanta. The whole world has Turner as their top defender prospect, so he’s another placeholder like Alt until I hear differently.

9. Chicago - Rome Odunze, WR, Washington

   This is another spot where the draft could get weird. Bears could go WR, offensive line, or defense and I wouldn’t be mad at any of it.

10. NY Jets - Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State

    Tough one after they backfilled their two biggest needs (OT and WR) with really good players. Really good players who can’t seem to stay healthy. If the Bears do something goofy, I don’t care if you just signed a WR, I think you still add Rome.

11. LA Chargers - Terrion Arnold, CB, Bama

    They got the extra picks, but now missed out on the first three WRs, so I’ll just have them waiting to fill that with volume later on and reaching a bit for the top corner on my big board.

12. Denver - Jared Verse, Edge, Florida State.

    Maybe in a month, we’re talking about a 5th quarterback going to one of these two AFC West teams, but I’m just not there yet on Nix or Penix. With Arnold going right ahead of them in my mock it creates a tough choice between the 2nd best CB or the 2nd best edge player.

13. Las Vegas - Troy Fautanu, OT, Washington

    Another team that needs a quarterback, but is drafting too far from the top. They added to the defense already by signing Christian Wilkins and have a star WR on board. Could use another tackle to go along with Kolton Miller.

14. New Orleans - Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia

    I have no idea what this team is doing from a roster construction standpoint. They probably should take a corner or OT here, but Bowers may be too tempting at this point.

15. Indianapolis - Quinyon Mitchell, CB Toledo

16. Seattle - Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT, Penn State

17. Jacksonville - Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU

18. Cincinnati - JC Latham, OT, Alabama

19. LA Rams - Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson

20. Pittsburgh - Jackson Powers-Johnson, C, Oregon

    With Fautanu off the board, this is a great option to help fill some needs at IOL, more specifically, the center.

    Sidebar: this is the point in the mock where I stop thinking so hard. A million things can happen up until this point, I’m basically going to go off of team needs, best available, and what I think makes sense; in that order.

21. Miami - Byron Murphy II, DL, Texas

22. Philadelphia - Kamari Lassiter, CB, Georgia

    It’s a need, plus it’s funny that it’s another Georgia player

23. LA Chargers - Keon Coleman, WR, FSU

    (Gave ‘em this one in the Minnesota trade too)

24. Dallas - Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia

25. Green Bay - Graham Barton, OL, Duke

    One of my favorite fits

26. Tampa Bay - Laiatu Latu, Edge, UCLA

27. Arizona - Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa

28. Buffalo - Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas

29. Detroit - Chop Robinson, Edge, Penn State

30. Baltimore - Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas

    Building Miami’s offense up north

31. San Francisco - Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma

32. Kansas City - Jer'Zhan Newton, DL, Illinois

My biggest takeaways/questions after doing this:

1. How will teams treat their needs at offensive line with such a deep class, feels like there’s a case they all fall and maybe we only get 8 in the first round

2. Same with the WRs after the top three, maybe there isn’t such a big gap between the other guys that are projected round 1-2 players and the next tier

3. I get that it’s QB, but I just can’t find a way to shoehorn a 5th guy in right now. Penix impressed a bit at the combine, but I still wonder if both he and Nix end up getting the Malik Willis treatment.

Carolina

May not have a first round pick, but sports betting is legal. PLEASE take advantage of all the offers! You only get launch offers once, there is a ton of money on the table, NC

Betting

Haven’t made bets yet, but starting to look at some of the “team to draft ___ position” markets. The big position total markets are up. Here’s how my first mock would fall:

Under 5.5 CBs -225 (5)

Under 6.5 DL + Edge -320 (6)

Under 11.5 Defensive Players +125 (11)

Under 9.5 Offensive Linemen -160 (9)

Over 20.5 Offensive Players +125 (21)

Under 4.5 QBs +160 (4)

Under 0.5 RBs -2000 (0)

Under 0.5 Safeties -650 (0)

Over 6.5 WRs +190 (7)

A couple of other fun prices just based on what I mocked (THESE ARE NOT BETS I MADE). All from DraftKings:

Brock Bowers to go the Saints: +2200

Xavier Worthy to go the Ravens: +1300

J.J. McCarthy - 5th Pick: +300

Chargers to select CB first: +2000

Chiefs to select DL/Edge first: +750

Some other Mocks to Peep

From some friends of the Newsletter: