MNF Betting Preview: Bears at Vikes

If you had bet the Chargers and took a loss last night, you’re probably upset with Zay Flowers’ decision to not go down but, I’m not so sure I want to toss it in the “bad beat category”. Justin Tucker has made over 95% of his FGs under 50 yards over the past 11 years, so you were already on borrowed time. In the end, it was the 4 turnovers that doomed the Chargers, but Flowers finishing that run was just the universe evening things out after a surprising 44-yard kick miss by Tucker on the previous drive.

Market

The side has seen strong Bears money come in, driving this down to the Vikings -3 we’re seeing today. This opened as high as Minnesota -4.5 at some soft Sunday lines.

The Under has been hit a bit as well, coming down from the 45.5/46 openers right away and getting down to as far as 43.5 on Sunday before seeing some resistance.

Injuries

The Bears are finally pretty healthy. The only player likely to miss is RB D’Onta Foreman, leaving the door open for Herbert and RoJo to get some extra carries. Three other players are listed as questionable: Backup LT Larry Borom, LB Noah Sewell, and CB Tyrique Stevenson.

Stevenson missing tonight would probably mean Terell Smith would be called back into action. He saw a fair amount of action early in the season as the Bears were working to get healthy in the secondary. Sewell is mostly a special teams player and Borom is OL depth now that Braxton is back.

The Vikings’ big question seems to have been answered; it doesn’t sound like he’s going to play tonight.

CB Akayleb Evans and NT Khyiris Tonga are also listed as questionable. Evans matters to the secondary, but we’ll see about his availability after missing last week and only being a limited participant all week so far. Tonga must have been an issue in practice since he wasn’t added to the list until Friday with a knee issue. I’m not going to say that the game hinges on whether or not Khyiris Tonga plays, but this front already lost Dean Lowry for the year and is thin up front, so it’s not ideal at all for Minnesota.

Matchup

I think the last time the Vikings opened as a betting favorite was the first matchup against the Bears six weeks ago. A bit of a different look here with Dobbs at the helm and it being a home game for Minnesota, but I tend to agree that the number is pretty close to where it should be.

With both defenses improving a ton from early in the season, it’ll be interesting to see if they can eclipse the 32 combined points scored in the first matchup.

Fields was knocked out in that game, with Tyson Bagent finishing things out, but before he was, it wasn’t terribly pretty. The pass rush was affecting him quite a bit, he had no TDs, a pick thrown, and took four sacks before he exited. If the Bears haven’t learned their lesson about the need to get him on the move or at least to use a bit more play-action, it could be a similar kind of day for him coming back from the thumb injury.

If the game plan is similar to the last time these two teams met up, you may as well start the coaching search up in Halas Hall, because it’ll be plainly apparent that Eberflus doesn’t understand the assignment. Leaving Fields to get hit in the pocket a dozen times on long developing plays isn’t usually the answer. Even less so against an aggressive defensive playcaller.

An interesting matchup here is a Bears defense that’s been very good against the run as of late but has struggled dearly to keep a lid on good passing games. The hope for Vikings backers would be that KOC dials up a pass-heavy game plan that takes advantage of Dobbs’ ability to scramble if needed. I wouldn’t be putting a ton of trust in the Minnesota running backs against a team that’s been able to slow teams down on the ground. Vikings will need all hands on deck in the receiving corps, might be another big Hock game.

Betting