Worked through it all this morning to see where I stand on teams after a pretty weird Sunday of NFL:

My quick takeaways from each game yesterday:

Atlanta 7 - Jacksonville 23

This game felt eerily similar to the Lions game last week. Huge questions about the offense still loom for Atlanta despite having some good players to build with. Jags’ offense is far from “fixed”, really wasn’t any better than Atlanta, they just didn’t turn it over. Defensively, the pressure on Ridder was a nice change of pace for them. Love seeing Lawrence run a bit more (42 yards), he’s an underrated weapon with his legs.

Miami 20 - Buffalo 48

Josh Allen looked about as good as he ever has and woke up as the MVP favorite at most books. A strong 1st half meant they could throttle it back some in the 2nd (they were still VERY efficient with the ball). If they weren’t already an over team: The Bills picked up two more injuries to the defensive backfield including Tre White looking done for the year. Dolphins (like the Bills) are better as a front-runner and struggled in the negative game state. The Miami defense has a long way to go, Kader Kohou had an all-time bad day.

Denver 31 - Chicago 28

Both quarterbacks had some much-needed success against each other’s porous defenses. Chicago not holding on somehow was surprising, but Justin Fields looked very good at times. That was not something I expected even against a beleaguered Broncos D. Payton got his first win, but overcoming a lot of points being given up may turn out to be a weekly challenge.

Baltimore 28 - Cleveland 3

DTR was not ready for prime time and the Browns’ offense was stuck in mud for most of the game. Browns’ defense was not as sharp as in weeks prior but was forced to defend some short fields (and Lamar). Browns go into the bye and hopefully have a healthy Watson on the other side of it. Four sacks, and three picks for DTR. The Ravens lead the division despite all the injuries.

…….

These notes keep getting bigger each week, so in the interest of keeping this a bit shorter, I threw them all in an article if you want to catch up on all fourteen games:

Market

Lookahead price here was a pick’em, reopening at Seattle -1.5 last Sunday with some early Giants money pushing it across zero before all the mid to late-week Seattle action took it again to the current -1.5 road favorite.

The total has really only seen over money with the opener of 45 getting bet up to 47.5, where it’s finally seen some resistance.

Matchup

The Seahawks are in a rough situational spot here, traveling across the county to play a team that’s coming off extra rest. The Giants find themselves in the same spot as the Eagles were last week, playing a MNF game with a full 10 days to prep after last playing on Thursday.

It sounds like RB Saquon Barkley will be inactive for a second straight week with an ankle injury. LT Andrew Thomas is also expected to miss another game with an ailing hamstring.

Seattle is having all kinds of problems in the defensive secondary. CBs Artie Burns, Tre Brown, and Coby Bryant will likely all miss this game. They will get Jamal Adams back, but it still leaves some weird holes where folks like S Julian Love may have to slide into a CB spot tonight.

They’ll also continue to be without both starting tackles, Charles Cross is set to sit out a third game in a row with a toe issue. The team is 2-1, but so far have beaten two bad defenses in higher-scoring games. The Giants may just be a third in a row, but eventually, the injuries will catch up to them, right?

With the Giants facing a “less-than” pass rush and the issues in the secondary, this game may just come down to what Kafka can scheme up for Daniel Jones to be successful tonight. We saw them get moved on by a much worse team at home last week and were forced to win a track meet versus a beat-up defense.

On the other side, with all the issues up front for Seattle, the Giants getting pressure will be massive. Obviously, they’ll blitz a ton, but it really needs to get home as the secondary hasn’t been great. I’m not hopeful, as the Giants only have TWO sacks on the season, which would be tied for 48th best in the league if their entire defense were a player. There are several defensive backs that have more sacks than the Giants as a team so far.

With Both teams well down in the standings for pressure rates, maybe the move to the over makes some sense here. I’m not saying you should chase steam, but it’s what I’d play if I were jonesing for a late bet.

Tonight will go a long way in figuring out what we have in the Giants. On one hand, they may just not be a playoff-caliber team, on the other it may just be a team that played the 49ers and Cowboys early on. With all the extra time to prepare we really should see some well-put-together game plans on both sides of the ball for the Giants.

I don’t buy into must-win narratives, but man you’d hope the Giants are fired up. Being embarrassed for a third time on national television this early in the year won’t feel good.

Betting

Couple of small props I’ll have in this one:

Zach Charbonnet Anytime TD Scorer +290 (FD) - The Giants’ defense hasn’t been great against the rush, and Charbonnet’s snap % has gone up each week. 43% last week and STILL priced like this with his backfield mate KWIII anytime priced at -120.

Daniel Jones o0.5 INT +123 (Rivers) - Seattle only has one INT on the year, but turnovers can be a little streaky and they did manage to haul in 14 last season. With all the turn over in the defensive backfield for Seattle and Saq Barkley out, I expect to see Jones throwing often. (looked at his attempts over, but 32.5 is a pretty good number.)

Darren Waller o4.5 receptions +123 (FD) - similar to the above narrative but also looking at the success Andy Dalton and Adam Thielen had last week. The Seattle coverage unit is in flux and very beatable. If you have a good route runner who can get separation, he should be a massive part of your game plan. If the Giants want to win, Waller likely needs to eat.

Ice cold on these, but they’re very small bets for a reason, feel like we’ve got it today. Shopped for the best price I could find at the legal options:

Tyler Lockett +1000 (FD)

Darren Waller +1600 (MGM)

Noah Fant +3000 (MGM)

Paris Campbell +3500 (MGM)