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I only watched Red Zone yesterday, so I’m quite a bit behind, but I know a few things. Here are my quick thoughts from each game.

• The Red Zone channel showed WAY too much of the Titans/Jags game

• I’m not sure the Dolphins can beat anyone with this defense, but Tua is cruising.

• Kirk Cousins probably wasn’t the reason for Justin Jefferson’s success

• The end of the Giants game was a microcosm for their year

• The Eagles did a nice Chiefs impression (the Panthers keep getting friskier)

• The Full Jameis experience is weekly

• All the QBs I bet on decided on turning it over in the Red Zone (AOC)

• The Seahawks looked much better against the ARI defense this time around, as they should.

• Rams-Bills was the most fun I’ve had watching a great QB lose in a long time.

• The Bears may just stink. Caleb has a bi-polar playing style, and we caught the lows yesterday.

• The Chiefs CAN and WILL CONTINUE to get away with it

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Bengals at Cowboys (+5.5/49.5)

Market

The lookahed price was Cincy -6.5, opening lower at -6 and getting some Cowboys money to keep it moving to the current five and a half.

The total was as low as 44.5 (which was bet up last week) and reopened at 48 and has been bouncing around a bit, heading lower early in the week and back up to as high as 50.5 midweek.

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Injuries

For the Cowboys, S Juanyeh Thomas (Knee) and G Zack Martin (Ankle/Shoulder) are out. Martin is done for the season and maybe for his Cowboys career. CB Trevon Diggs (Knee) and T (Ankle/Knee) are listed as questionable.

TE Jake Ferguson cleared the concussion protocol and will play on Monday night. CeeDee Lamb is also good to go after some concerns earlier in the week.

For the Bengals, LT Orlando Brown Jr. (fibula) has been ruled out. Cody Ford will go in his place. DT Sheldon Rankins (illness) will miss again with an unknown illness that’s been keeping him out for three straight weeks now. Returner Charlie Jones (groin) is listed as questionable.

Matchup

Why didn’t this get flexed? Maybe blame 1980s comedian Tracey Ullman?

My Ratings

Cincinnati: 7th rated offense, 30th rated defense
Dallas: 27th rated offense, 24th rated defense

Plenty of memes to go around, but the stats are what they are, and Joe Burrow is a top-5 quarterback by plenty of standards this season. The issues have plainly been with a bottom-5 defense not holding up their end of the bargain.

These should be simple equations for the brain trusts throwing together the offensive game plans. Cooper Rush’s deep ball sucks and the Bengals can be beat with the run game and short passing attack. With Ferguson back in the fold and the emergence of Rico Dowdle, this shouldn’t be that hard.

Hell, the Bengals’ game plan should be even easier. Get two hats on Micah Parsons and rip this secondary to shreds with your elite WRs. It’s also been a terrible run-stop unit, so mixing in the running game won’t be the usual waste of downs, either.

Reductionist oversimplification by me, and if there were to be some flies in the ointment, I suppose it’d be the aforementioned Parsons. Taking on a backup LT should have him champing at the bit. It’s easy to say, “Let’s just chip him on every play,” but you still have to go out and execute. It sometimes only takes a missed block to flip a game on its head if he gets to Burrow.

Betting

My pricing makes this Cincy -4.5 or so, but I don’t know that I can stomach a bet on the Cowboys today, all things considered.

I’ll have a smaller bet on this over (if I can get logged into my sportsbooks once I set foot on Bahamian soil this morning). Joe Burrow may be all but out of the playoffs, but he doesn’t seem to be showing any signs of slowing down and both of the defenses have been absolutely horrid at times. If Trevon Diggs ends up missing this game or is hampered by his injury, I don’t know what answers the Cowboys would have other than simply trying to go score-for-score with the Bengals.

Bet: Over 49.5