For the record, I don’t dislike the doubleheader; I just hate the overlap. Many moons ago, they did this sort of thing but just started one game insanely late. I recall a Vikings/49ers matchup to open the season that was played out West and started after the normal MNF (which may have even started early to help facilitate this; my memory is foggy). I got to bed way too late, and my Vikings lost soundly, leaving me crabby, but I still didn’t have to try to watch two games at once.

Some no-brainer takes from this Sunday

• This was supposed to be the hard part of the Vikings schedule

• Cleveland may be irredeemable at this point (Jameis)

• Bo Nix and Caleb Williams took advantage of some defenses that were missing pieces. If nothing else, some nice confidence builders heading forward.

• Skylar Thompson does not appear to be serviceable as a fill-in QB

• LaFleur will get the flowers, but Malik Willis played well against a much tougher test than last week

• I have no idea how the Rams won that game. Everything came up their way in the final 5 minutes.

• Dallas has so much talent on their roster; something has to change for them.

• Good for Carolina, bad for “Bryce just needs more help around him”

• It was probably defensive pass interference vs the Chiefs last night, it has to sting for ATL.

Market

Lookahed last week was Bills -3.5; it reopened -6 and initially took a little bit of money before crashing back down to -5. Some interest in the market on gameday taking the Bills back to -5.5.

The Total did see some early week under money, but game day has gone back up to the opener of 46.5 after bottoming out at 45 on Monday.

Injuries

TE Evan Engram (hamstring) is out for the Jags. RB Tank Bigsby (shoulder), S Darnell Savage (quad), and OL Cam Robinson (knee) are questionable.

LB Terrel Bernard (pectoral) and CB Taron Johnson (forearm) are out for the Bills.

Matchup

Will a bad performance put Doug Pederson on the hot seat? Last night on the halftime stream someone asked about first coach fired and when Doug came up, I countered that he still had the option of maybe jettisoning his offensive coordinator Press Taylor as a last ditch salvo, but if the offense looks bad again tonight against what is a beat up and battered defense, I’d consider moving on from both of them.

There doesn’t seem to be one thing that I can zero in on that’s causing them issues this year, it seems to be a bunch of small issues adding up to become a big enough force to keep them from winning. But, in a case like that, the first thing I’d point to is the coaching staff.

Buffalo on the other hand looked great last Thursday, dispatching a divisional opponent on the road despite losing their star WR in the offseason and their best defender in the preseason. Game state dictated things a bit, but Josh Allen only having to throw 19 times, while they leaned on their running game and defense a bit was a welcome sight for Bills fans and backers. The offseason was certainly filled with anxiety about if this offense could still hang with the Dolphins and Jets.

Neither offense looks to have a massive advantage on the opposing defense tonight and I think tonight will really come down to game planning and execution from the coaching staffs. As much as it pains me, I’ve been impressed with McDermott and my worries about offensive coordinator Joe Brady’s high run rate last season have been pretty much erased. Hell, maybe he was ahead of the game. Running effectively and having a QB who can ad lib is the ultimate cure to beating lighter, faster defenses in 2024. Maybe the Bills will be just fine.

Betting

I wish I had gotten up earlier, but I will be laying the -5.5 with Buffalo in this spot. At home, extra rest, better coach, better play caller, better quarterback.

Even with some adjustments for matchups, I make this -7 and will continue to play where I see value, even in a world where medium to big favorites cover twice a month, at best.

BET: Bills -5.5 -109

Market

The lookahead was on the other side of a touchdown, Cincy -6.5 last week. After answering some questions about the offense, despite the loss, this reopened -7 with extra juice or -7.5. Some two way action here, with the side getting up to -8.5 early in the week and back down to an expensive -7 again currently.

The Total saw an initial move to the over early in the week but took a tumble when limits went up and is now under 47.

Injuries

It sure looks like WR Tee Higgins will finally make his season debut for the Bengals tonight after missing the first two games with a hamstring injury. DTs Sheldon Rankin is out and DT BJ Hill is doubtful, leaving them very thin up front defensively. Newly signed Lawrence Guy

Rookie Kris Jenkins will be questionable but should play, even with a cast on his hand. OT Amarius Mims will also be making his debut (dressing, not starting). S Vonn Bell is questionable while TE Tanner Hudson is out.

The Commanders will be missing edge rusher Clelin Ferrell (knee). CB Emmanuel Forbes is questionable.

Matchup

Hearing reports from the beat reporters and fan sites that the Bengals “must get the run going”. Maybe they do, but honestly, they may have another week’s time before they really need to get on that. The strength of this Washington defense is certainly the DT combo of Deron Payne and Jonathan Allen. The pass rush from the edge is mild, the secondary is a mess and if the interior of the Cincy offensive line can hold up just a bit, having your top two WRs healthy and available against these corners should be a recipe to really get right for Burrow.

The Bengals are 0-2 and have an extra day to prep here. If we don’t see a crisp offense out of the gate, I may actually have to start worrying about this team.

The Commanders are 1-1 after last weeks win, but obviously are taking a big step up in class this week. Dan Quinn’s been a head coach before, I’m not worried about his prep heading into a big primetime matchup, I’m just worried the current defensive roster is a full year (or more) away from being able to slow down a good offense.

I think the expectations for this year should be kept in check, but I’m still very keen on seeing if Jayden Daniels continues to improve in his decision making and if Kliff can come up with ANYTHING that works inside the red zone this week.

Betting

This is still a ton of points, and I respect what we saw from Jayden Daniels in his first two starts. I had considered the Commanders at a real big number here, but was hoping I would be nabbing the last of the +7.5s as Higgins was announced out. The best laid plans, etc….

Maybe it’s dumb in the era of scores dropping into the 30s across the land, but for my money, I think both offenses should have advantages here. The Bengals QB/WR/TE combo should be able to shred this WAS secondary. On the other side, while it may not be as aesthetically pleasing, the Washington run game could (and hopefully will) thrive against a bad run defense that’s now down multiple players up front. Maybe I’m wrong, but I think an over is a way to back Washington while also accounting for a game where they do look good offensively but still give up an obscene amount of yards and lose by margin.

It wasn’t pretty when they got there, but these two teams combined for 745 yards and ten red zone trips last week. I’ll send a forwarding address from the local mental health care facility so you can write me after this ends 24-21 on 15 short field goals.

BET: Over 46 -108