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Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours… and if you don’t celebrate that particular holiday, happy Thursday anyway; that ain’t going to stop you from watching football all day. Remember to spend some time with your family, though. Don’t go full-Gase.

Thanksgiving Bets

I’m traveling today. Hell, I’m traveling tomorrow as well. Going to see family in three different states over the next few days. But, football is in high gear so I’ll do what I can, as always.

We went through these games on the podcast and found a few angles. I know you have stuff to do today as well, so I’m just going to cut to the chase and lay out three angles for today’s games I’ll be on before I get into the truck and head to Thanksgiving.

Lions/Bears over 48 -103

The market coming in on the Bears makes sense, but I certainly can’t get behind it being support for the Bears’ defense on a short week against yet another great offense. I think if you like the Bears here, you like the over. Maybe getting enough film on the new offense with OC Thomas Brown eventually catches up to this team, but with how Caleb Williams has been looking over the past couple of weeks, I’m comfortable backing him to push Detroit (and Detroit to keep answering). With the Bears down two safeties and the Lions ailing at cornerback, hopefully, the holiday starts with some fireworks.

Sidebar: Does Dan Campbell like to put on a show for the home fans? In the past three games in Detroit, they’ve scored 42, 52, & 52. I’m not banking on him running it up, but I wouldn’t complain. If I had to bet a side, it’d be Detroit -9.5, I make this game around -11 in my ratings.

Giants/Boys over 37.5 -108

Drew Lock is likely in, so should it be an upgrade over Cutlets? The Cowboys’ defense is getting healthier much more slowly than I expected, and it still isn’t any good. Maybe this devolves into a terrible game, but I don’t have very high enough ratings for either defense to make this number as low as it is.

Drew (Dinsick, not Lock) talked me into this on the podcast, but the more I looked into it, the more I was convinced that passing games and their backup QBs could likely still move the ball on these secondaries. Cooper Rush hasn’t been terrible when he’s not taking sacks, and if we’re being honest with ourselves here, there’s probably a fair chance of a hilarious turnover or two in this one. It’d be nice if they happened in the shadow of the goalposts.

Dolphins +3.5 -115

The weather thing is likely being overblown as hell here. Sure, Tua is a Hawaiian who played in the Deep South in college and lives in South Beach, but it’s not as if he just stops functioning when it dips below 50. Unlike the famous playoff game in KC, there won’t be a ton of wind to make it feel colder, and temperatures will be in the 20s to 30s tonight. That’s a far cry from 27 below wind chills.

This isn’t a huge edge for me. I make the fair price around Green Bay -2.5, but considering the upgrades I’ve made to the Miami offense and the continued absence of CB Jaire Alexander, I tend to think they’ll be able to continue their offensive success. I’ll also have a smaller bet on the Miami moneyline.

Holiday Deposit Match Just for You!

Free Prop Play

Jahmyr Gibbs over 68.5 rushing yards (-113 at FD, 73.5 CZRS, 74.5 DK, play up to 75)

Joint play from Connor Allen and Ryan Noonan: Montgomery was ruled out of the game last week, now we are catching a short week and great matchup for Gibbs. The Bears run D has been brutal this season, allowing 4.89 ypc to opposing RBs and 8 different RBs have 70+ rushing yards against them. Meanwhile Gibbs has turned into Jamaal Charles this season, crushing on middling volume. With a short week I expect them to shift even more usage to Gibbs who already has 69+ yards in 8-of-12 games. Add in the matchup adv and Monty banged up and I wouldn't be surprised to see this close in the high 70's. Bit of an off market number from FD but totally fine in the low-70's as well. Risk 1.13 units to win 1 unit

Please check out all their stuff over at 4for4.com and while your there, maybe peep the Thanksgiving week sale, where you can get the rest of the season for pennies on the dollar. It’s the biggest sale of the year by a long shot.

ICYMI, we went over all the games yesterday. Timestamped for your pleasure.

🦃