Giants at Steelers

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Three Big Things (non-Hail Mary)

1. Holy shit, the Jets messed this whole thing up. I don’t even know what the next step is.

2. Anthony Richardson’s quote was tough. He may as well have just said, “I don’t really like football.”

3. It’s impossible to evaluate some of these first-year head coaches. With the quarterback situations in Carolina, Tennessee, and Las Vegas, I’m not sure if we’ll learn much about these HCs.

My best take ahead of Sunday

Jameis Winston is an upgrade. Yeah, he threw right at some Ravens a couple of times, but he also made some throws that we haven’t seen from this team since well… last year when Watson was out. The team just seemed to play harder on both sides of the ball. It felt like the “Interim Coach Bump” you see after a particularly disliked head coach is let go and replaced by literally anyone else.

My worst take ahead of Sunday

I suppose backing the Seahawks. I didn’t have the best of luck in that one either, as my Hawks were about to get the ball back after a 3rd down stop in a 7-3 game, only to see the ball squirt loose and forward for an unbelievable first down conversion. It was downhill from there, and the Seattle offense didn’t get going until it was too late. My numbers are currently saying to back them again this week, and I’m not sure I can. Significant defensive downgrades already for me, and I might not be done.

My Good take that didn’t work out

Maybe it wasn’t meant to be, but the over in the SNF game getting there so painstakingly easy after a slow 1st half hurt. Dallas’ defensive issues were getting exposed more and more as the game went on, which sucked. Brocktober is back on for now.

Market

Last week’s performance gave the Steelers a boost in the market, opening -6 after we saw a lookahead price of just -3.5 prior to the win. Some action on Pittsburgh, but it was bet back down after reaching -6.5 for a bit early in the week.

The total was pushed down early in the week as well. The lookahead price was 38, opened at 37, and got as low as 36 before bouncing back to the current number.

Injuries

The Steelers are still pretty banged up in a few spots. Already ruled out for the home team:

• C Zach Frazier

• LB Nick Herbig

• RB Cordarrelle Patterson

• WR Roman Wilson

• OT Dylan Cook

• LB Tyler Matakevich

• DT Montravius Adams

On top of those, now-backup QB Justin Fields showed up as a late addition to the injury report with hamstring. Everyone else (who wasn’t ruled out) is coming into the game without a status.

For the Giants, CB Adoree’ Jackson is out again, but edge rusher Brian Burns and DT Dexter Lawrence are expected to play. CB Cor’Dale Flott is listed as doubtful, and his backup, Tre Hawkins, is also questionable after being limited over the weekend. LB Ty Summers and punter Jamie Gillan are also ruled out.

On the offensive side of the ball, WR Jalin Hyatt is good to go this week, but RT Jermaine Elumunor is questionable with a hip injury. If he misses, they’d be without both starting tackles, facing a mean Pittsburgh pass rush.

Matchup

It's not a great game to follow up on last week’s effort by the offensive line and Daniel Jones. Down your best offensive lineman and going up against a better (maybe the best) defensive pass rush is probably not what the doctor ordered for a get-right spot here.

Brian Burns being healthy and ready to go is nice, but if this game state flips like last week, it may be eerily similar to a bad New York run defense slowly watching the other team grind out the clock and never really having a shot to get back in it. Again, against a BETTER defense with a better coach and one of the best edge rushers in the league.

The biggest wildcard seems to be what we’ll get out of week 2 of Russell Wilson. He didn’t look great at times, but it was effective somehow. Having a receiver like George Pickens who can fight for contested (underthrown) balls will help him a ton, but I still worry about his mobility and sack avoidance. If the Giants pass rush started to get home and he turns into a pumpkin, maybe we end up with Fields again? I doubt it, but I don’t think I’m worried or predicting a big difference between the two, at least if Fields is healthy enough to use his legs.

Betting

My ratings here are pretty close, and I actually lean a little toward the Giants in my raw numbers. It’s the matchup disadvantages up and down the board that will keep me away from this one. One of my top-rated run defenses against a team with a banged-up RB1 and, as mentioned before, an elite pass-rushing unit against a bad, injured offensive line.

So, a few props that follow the game script I see as most likely: the Steelers running well early, running well late, and some more Russ deep balls against another defense that has trouble defending them. The Giants chase and Tomlin does his damndest to scheme Nabers out of the picture.

Najee Harris over 78.5 rushing yards -114

George Pickens longest reception over 23.5 yards -114

Tyrone Tracy over 8.5 receiving yards -115

Theo Johnson over 1.5 receptions -115