Excited to get this week over with and finally get to the damn games. No real weather updates that’ll be helpful, still looks cold in KC and snowy in Buffalo. The weather here is awful too, thanks for asking.

Injuries

🚨MARK ANDREWS IS PRACTICING🚨

• The Texans ruled out DE Jerry Hughes and will go into Saturday’s game with everyone questionable, like every other Houston game this past month. Will Anderson, Noah Brown, Jonathan Greenard, Maliek Collins, Sheldon Rankins, Robert Woods, and Andrew Beck are all Q.

• Mostert and Waddle are going to be questionable for the Phins. Elliott and Holland will be as well. Xavien Howard was ruled out already earlier.

• Justyn Ross and Kadarius Toney will be questionable for KC on Saturday night.

• Steelers are looking healthier than they have a spell (outside of the gutting loss of TJ Watt). Only Cam Heyward was limited on Thursday (for rest, he’s the same age as JJ Watt)

• WR Gabe Davis and S Taylor Rapp are OUT for Buffalo. CB Rasul Douglas will again not practice today.

• Jaire Alexander was injured in practice and DNP on Thursday, same with AJ Dillon

• Stephon Gilmore got a limited practice in on Thursday, he’s looking like he’ll be active Sunday for the ‘Boys.

• Sam LaPorta isn’t practicing but apparently, there is some optimism (I still wonder if it’s just gamesmanship by Danny C)

• If Thursday’s walkthrough had been a real practice Baker Mayfield and OT Tristan Wirfs would NOT have been participants. They both appear to be returning to practice today though.

• DeVonta Smith was a full go at Thursday practice for Philly but A.J. Brown sat out with his knee injury and Jalen Hurts was limited with his finger.

Lots of fun markets this week/month, but as Connor points out here, make sure you know what you’re getting into! This is akin to betting on the Wimbledon or Masters prices way ahead of time where “all runners are action”.

A few fun bets I’ve seen tossed around are the playoff leader markets. Up at most of the legal shops I looked at (so shop around), I did some digging. I just looked at the past three years for the most passing yards, rushing yards and receiving yards and there wasn’t much of a deviation: You’re pretty much just betting on a team to win the conference (or make the conference title game from this weekend).

Every year, the leaders are from teams that played in 3-4 games, that’s how addition works I suppose. Last year four out of the top five in all three big categories came from teams that played three times. So, in the end, this may just be a fun way to get some more exposure on a team you think runs deep this month.

The two previous years saw teams make it from the first weekend to the Super Bowl, giving them four games. 2021 had both the Rams and Bengals playing in their fourth game so of course the playoff leaders across the board were Stafford-Burrow, Akers-Mixon, and Kupp-Chase. 2020 saw a lot of Buccs at the top due to their path to the Championship from the wild card round.

Boring, and maybe not all that helpful, but if you have fairs for a team to advance. Compare your prices, the players’ prices, and probably the team’s odds to win their conference (or some sort of forward-looking moneyline parlay to win this week AND next and get three shots at accumulating stats).

I tried to make some cases for a few longer prices. I’m still a believer in Cleveland and despite the next round almost certainly being a trip to Baltimore, Amari Cooper at 20/1 for most receiving yards spoke to me a little. Also wanted to see about some Miami prices since they are the team that no one loves right now, but even as an underdog this Saturday, the prices for Achane, Mostert, and Tyreek suck. Hoping we see an updated listing with Mark Andrews sometime today, he wasn’t up at any of the shops I hunted at.

…..

Connor took it a different way, looking just at this weekend for today’s free prop:

 D'Andre Swift most rushing yards (wild card weekend only) 18/1

Follow Connor on Twitter for more NFL betting content, and get in the 4for4 Discord if you want to see everything he’s betting each week.

As always, the guys will have more thoughts on the weekend’s props today at 3 pm ET:

Take it easy with the teasers I’d think, although I did check and it’s not as if math-based teasers did any worse. The smaller slate of games and added interest should probably make the market more efficient if anything. Basic Strategy teasers love efficiency

I looked into it a bit (cut it off in 2015 when the XP was moved back). All Teaser Legs that can cross the 3 and 7 (+1.5, +2, +2.5, -7.5, -8, -8.5):

Regular season since 2015: 398-146-8 (73.2%)

Postseason since 2015: 22-7 (75.9%)

So I guess my “take it easy” call is more of a warning not to get dumb and start teasing totals or mixing in a basketball game when you run into a week like this where not much will fall into the range.

So, no rankings this week as the only game really in a spot to tease is the Texans at +2 currently. I think a lot of folks will still add Dallas to teasers and once we get some sort of positive news on Baker Mayfield, we likely see that come back down to +2.5. If nothing else, all three that are possibilities are at home!