There are a million recap podcasts/articles this morning, feels like more than last year. We already talked a bunch at halftime and I’m sure we’ll go over it again a bit more on the Sunday night recap podcast, so I’ll keep it brief and get to Brazil.

I like standalone games as they let you keep a closer eye on things, and I usually don’t have to rewatch them.

A lot of (over?)reactions, which probably need some ratings:

• The Ravens Offensive Line is Bad. Giving this a 7/10. It was a road opener against the guy who took over as “biggest badass DT” with Aaron Donald retiring, and their offensive line coach was hospitalized early on in the preseason before sadly passing at age 70. Between that and all the turnover, I’m trying not to be too hasty (plus I started this rating fairly low. I’m still going to downgrade this a bit based on the guard play, but it’s early. Rosengarten playing better as the year goes on seems like the only way this improves at all.

• Lamar Can’t Run This Much and Survive. Just a 5/10 for me. He was smart on a good portion of the runs, getting out of bounds or diving forward, but the 250+ carries he’s on pace for is obviously too high. The best take I saw on this was a Discord message below. This checks out for sure. If it’s a tough secondary that’s limiting the downfield passing, he’s going to have to take it up a notch like last night.

• The Chiefs’ Offense is Fully Back to ‘18-’22 Levels. 6/10, but only since I got a little pumped for Rice, who I stumped for a little this summer. It was a terribly effective running game, and we didn’t see much from Mahomes as a scrambler, but the concepts they laid out for the young WRs worked against a good defense, and they will get another outside deep threat back eventually in Hollywood Brown. Maybe the rich do get richer. I’m not upgrading anything for KC (I have the high enough).

• The Refs are Favoring a Team/Game is Rigged. 0/10, see tweet. Refs are bad sometimes, and home teams can get the benefit of the call, but let’s go ahead and put the conspiracy theories away.

Market

If you want to go WAY back, this was sitting at a PK ’em in June, but for the past month, it has slowly worked its way all the way up to a very cheap -3 before seeing the buyback to the current 2-point spread with Philly favored.

The total tested 50 for a bit yesterday before seeing some under money push it back down. It had started the week down at 48.5 with a steady move up until late last night.

Injuries

For Green Bay, TE Tucker Kraft is questionable with a back injury and both of Josh Jacobs backups are as well (MarShawn Lloyd, Emanuel Wilson). With AJ Dillon already on the IR, I’ll be curious to see what Jacobs workload looks like even if one or both are ruled in, or who they move up from the PS.

The Eagles have already ruled out LB Devin White (ankle) and CB Isaiah Rodgers (hand). This makes a thin coverage unit even thinner with James Bradberry on the IR to start the year. 2nd-year man Keelee Ringo will likely play opposite Darius Slay with rookie Quinyon Mitchell in the slot. Slay was graded 55th out of 127 CBs last year and will need to step up with the youth around him. Nakobe Dean will be a big part of picking up the slack for Devin White’s absence. Slay also may not be a popular player with local fans who attend tonight.

Matchups

It’s still week one, and similar to last night, I have some big questions I need to answer. Most of them are going to come on the defensive side of the ball in Brazil. I think I have a pretty good grip on how these offenses have and will continue to operate. I have them rated as my 2nd and 6th best offenses.

Segueing from the injuries, this seems like a really bad time to be down two of your three starting cornerbacks. Mitchell comes highly rated and has impressed DC Vic Fangio in camp, but he’s still a rookie about to face what I consider an above-average play caller with 4-5 pretty good receivers. Reed Blankenship is a fine free safety, but if there are injuries or a need to go to even lighter defensive alignments, the next guys up are like Avonte Maddox (not ideal) or another rookie in Cooper DeJean.

On the other side of the coin, this Green Bay defense has been a boat anchor for a few years, in the bad way. Where it slows down the damn boat. They/We/I hope that new defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley will sort this out, but we last saw him coaching a college team and I’m not sure how smooth the transition to a base 3-4 will go, although a large part of the front seven have played together for a couple years, so there’s not a ton of turnover. X-factor is how they’ll use new SS Xavier McKinney who can absolutely get his nose in there and help with run stop while still being one of the better coverage safeties in the league. I’m concerned about what could be a weak run defending unit vs a great offensive line and good run scheme with likely the best RB they’ve had over the past few years.

Betting

I took the Packers moneyline. After some small tweaks to the ratings, I have the Eagles just barely favored here on the neutral site. I don’t love betting into underdogs under a field goal and almost always just take the moneyline as long term it’s been a better, but will obviously be shamed if they lose by one down Sao Paulo way.

I think the strength of this Philly defense (pass rush) is going to be taken away by a couple of things. The Green Bay offensive line should be pretty decent this year, and the matchup of the Packers’ WRs/TEs vs this young and rebuilt secondary may just take the pass rush out of the game. If Love doesn’t have to hold the ball for extended drop backs, it should be much less of a factor.

Packers, Straight-Up +112

Week One Teasers

I’ll have an early Sunday morning edition with all the rest of my bets for the week, but as always, I like to take an early look at what fits the “basic strategy teaser” criteria for the week. Tonight’s game is in there and I’ll list it even though I’m already invested in it.

So, from the teaser leg I like the most to the “teaser leg that gets ruined by the Patriots”.

Scared of the Bengals game, but if we get good news on Chase’s contract and Higgins’ health, this will scoot back up to -8.5 or -9 so, if that comes and you catch a book napping, you can likely get a bit of value.

If you can put 2+2 together (or listen to the podcast), you might guess on how I feel about getting involved with a moneyline in the Dallas/Cleveland game as well.

Lastly, the 4for4 boys are back for more Friday Free Props if you want to check that out and get a few more bets in the account before the weekend. Live in about 30.

Taking tomorrow off to get some honey-do list stuff done and hopefully go golfing, I’ll check back on Sunday morning with a full rundown of injuries, notes, my bets and hopefully some more free plays from the folks I work with.