🍺Friday Free Bet: Prop Bet for 49ers/Eagles

I get a ton wrong, especially dipping my toes in the player prop pool a bit more this season, but I would like to victory lap a LITTLE bit here. Betting an over and then watching a game with ZERO total punts felt better than most winning bets. Hell, we even doubled down at halftime on the over 24.5. Bonus, I had bet the Seahawks to miss the playoffs yesterday, so avoiding the scare of them getting an unlikely win was nice.

I’m not saying that I fully regret betting against the Hawks to make the playoffs. If this is the kind of game plan we’re going to get from Shane Waldron, this is a team I don’t mind watching. DK Metcalf was an absolute beast and we saw a version of Geno Smith that’s been hiding for quite a while. Obviously as an over bettor from last night I’m biased towards good offense from both teams, but man, there’s no way a neutral observer didn’t walk away from that one with a feeling on enjoyment. We need a Thursday shootout once in a while.

Yeah, the refs helped a ton, but honestly, I didn’t see egregiously bad calls on some of the big defensive pass interferences that helped these teams keep the offenses moving. It ain’t easy being a coverage guy in this league and the WRs all did a great job of working through the contact towards the ball to make sure they got the calls.

So, fun game with two QBs slinging it and the WR1s stepping up big. In the end Dallas avoided what could have been a death blow to their NFC East chances and sneak out a win, but for all the praise we’ll heap on this team I did want to take it to negative town a BIT before we move to the weekend. McCarthy still could make better in-game decisions:

The first two calls were more puzzling than anything and were early enough to maybe brush off, but the late call to kick a FG was pretty rough. Here are the win probability increase estimates from Ben Baldwin’s 4th down Bot and ESPN’s via Seth Walder. It’s probably somewhere in the middle, but still clearly the wrong decision when you can end the game with a three yard gain.

Lastly, Dak did take a meaningful step towards being a very serious MVP contender this year, but nothing is more important than next week’s Eagles game. After watching the Dallas defense last night, I’d be nervous they end up on the wrong side of a similar game versus Philly. It’s silly that playoff seeding and win-loss record matters for an individual award in a team sport, but perception is everything, and going 0-2 against your division rival matters to the people who vote on this thing.

Betting Recap

over 47.5 won 💰

I’ll spend a bit of time on the Philly-SF matchup Sunday Morning since it’s such a massive game, but for now my guy Connor from 4for4 has a prop play he likes for the 49ers’ deep threat WR: