Divisional Weekend Sunday Betting

Jordan Love and C.J. Stroud probably have decent careers ahead of them. Hell, maybe great careers. Both lost as big dogs but still have very nice seasons to be proud of for sure. Impressive showings by the Ravens’ defense to limit Slowik and Stroud to virtually nothing in plus territory. And despite the conservative play calling at times by Kyle Shanahan, the 49ers offense with CMC getting his number called repeatedly, was a bit too much in the end for Green Bay.

Love and the kicker have to have stared at the ceiling for a while last night after the missed field goal and cross-body interception that could have gotten this total over given them a chance to win. But again, I think it’s pretty apparent both QBs will bounce back (not so sure about Anders Carlson).

While it was a loser, I was a believer from Jump Street. Losing tickets aren’t usually victory-lapped, but I did like them to have a shot at overperforming this summer. From a USA Today article put together by Ben Fawkes on September 6th:

Market: Buccaneers’ money is showing up over the past 48 hours or so. Some sharper shops are down to -5.5 in this one. The total is up slightly off the opener of 48/48.5, seeing some late steam up to 49.5 last night.

My numbers still favor Detroit by over six in this spot, though I understand the money coming in for Tampa Bay. The Lions were not great in the 2nd half last week and had it not been for the luck/skill/variance in the red zone (DET 3-3, LAR 0-3), they’d be watching this one from home.

They did win though and in theory, get a weaker opponent this week. My main reasonings for being a bit higher than the market this week: Tampa’s defensive secondary isn’t as good as it once was, and while they can take away the inside run, I don’t see it as a great matchup for them against the two Detroit RBs and the run scheme we’ll see today. On the other side, I recognize that the Lions’ defense has been rough at times, but they do boast a pretty decent run stop and can turn a team one-dimensional.

So, with said good run defense, I can see the Lions forcing this one onto the shoulders of Baker Mayfield. The Tampa QB has been very impressive over the body of the season but has started to fall into some of the old habits that have doomed him a bit at other stops. His sack rate in the 2nd half of the season got worse and I’m still wondering if he’s actually at 100% health. We all saw how tough it was for him to keep it together versus Carolina when he was dinged up.

If this is how the game goes though, simply forcing Tampa to throw more won’t be enough. The Detroit pass rush will have to have a big game, or Evans, Godwin, and crew may just feast anyway.

Nothing in this one, but lordy I wouldn’t blame a person with access to reasonable pricing on their teasers to put in a DET/KC 6-pointer.

Market: Some early Kansas City +3 was taken right away leaving us where we still sit for most of the week. The total did open a touch higher at a few places and has come down and settled at 45.

The weather this week in Buffalo should be pretty similar to what we saw last week vs Pittsburgh, minus the snowbanks in the bleachers. Some winds, but likely close to 10, gusting higher. Temps in the teens but feeling closer to zero.

As I was working yesterday morning, I watched the 2021 matchup between these two teams. Even with the hindsight of knowing what happened, I kept catching myself trying to remember where all the points were about to come from. The game was 23-21 with Kansas City leading with 11:44 left in the 4th quarter. They would end up winning 42-36.

I doubt we get another classic like that but considering what we saw from these teams last week and how closely this game is lined, one can hope. The most recent meeting between the two teams was marred by the late game-winning TD coming off the board for a Kadaruis Toney offsides call. I’d settle for something in between.

I don’t have a strong take on the side or total here. Leaning Kansas City and the points, but don’t have the conviction to do it. The possibility of more Buffalo defenders being ruled out this afternoon may have more money coming in on the Chiefs, so maybe it’s worth taking them sooner rather than later if that’s your feel in this one.

Lost in the shuffle a bit (mostly since the game state dictated it, and Miami needed to throw) was the fact that the Chiefs are still a team that can be beaten on the ground. Derrick Nnadi missing in the middle may matter quite a bit. We’ve seen interim play-caller Joe Brady go to the ground game as option number one before. With Diggs clearly not himself, Douglas out, and some good coverage pieces back there for KC, I would think a heavy dose of James Cook could be just what the doctor ordered at home today.

Kansas City gives up 4.4 yards per attempt, good for 24th in the league. I also expect to see more of what you get when the Bills are in must-win situations: Josh Allen taking off

James Cook over 60.5 rushing yards -115

Josh Allen over 42.5 rushing yards -123

We’ll catch you tomorrow for a bit of a reset before Championship weekend. There are some look-ahead “hypothetical” lines up now for all four possible matchups, but we’ll see what the actual openers end up being and how the early actions looks.