Saturday Divisional Matchups

On the road today, and feeling a little peaked after a night out, so just some notes to catch up for the day and a couple of bets on the games.

• Things are getting serious with Belichick and the Falcons, but they are also scheduling a second interview with Jim Harbaugh.

• The Raiders took off the interim title and gave Antonio Pierce the head coaching job

• Mike Vrabel started his interviews for a new head coaching post in Los Angeles yesterday. The Chargers are also interviewing for their vacant GM spot.

Market: While there was some early-week Houston money that pushed this down to -9, the big move was on this total, down to 43.5 from a 45.5 opener, across a couple of semi-key numbers. A big part of the reason for that was probably the…

Weather: While not as bad as originally thought, the winds will still be high enough to be impactful. Looking at 15+ with gusts around 25 mph. Temps will be in the 20s but it’ll feel closer to 10 with the breezy conditions.

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I have no idea what this is worth and obviously, it gets put under the microscope a bit if the Texans offense sputters today, even as a big underdog, but like the Lions coordinators, Bobby Slowik has some interviews this weekend.

My numbers are fairly close (we discussed it on the podcast, maybe I’m a little low on Houston), so I don’t have a ton here. I did run across a nice little tweet from Clevta (who you should follow if you aren’t) going over some of the playoff trends for the teams off a bye, dome teams heading into the elements, and more:

Likely just some SGPs for me in this one, but my guy Connor Allen of 4for4 was nice enough to drop a prop for me this morning. Nothing sneaky, but it's still something I’ll be tailing him on in the afternoon matchup:

Isaiah Likely over 34.5 receiving yards -114

Likely ran a route on over 80% of dropbacks in Weeks 11-17 without Mark Andrews. He cleared 40 yards in every single game and averaged 58.2. He now gets the Texans who allow over 60 yards per game to opposing tight ends.

Market: There has been some support for Green Bay at +10, but the -9.5s were taken and we’re right back at the -10 we saw at open. The total has hung around the 50.5 mark for the past few days after some initial movement down really early in the week.

Weather: We’re almost certainly going to see rain here. Most sites list it as an 80%+ chance for a wet game tonight. Some wind, but should be end zone to end zone and not across the field.

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I understand that these offenses can slow it down, will often lean on the run and it’s going to rain!

I still can’t muster much in the way of respect for either of these defenses. A blowout, either way, is usually a recipe for an under to find its way home, but considering how effective I think both of these run games can be, I would expect both teams to move the ball a bit even if they are trying to milk some clock.

San Francisco has been deadly in the red zone all year and with Jordan Love elevating his game at the perfect time I have this total projected out closer to 54.

Green Bay Team Total over 20.5

Green Bay/San Francisco over 50.5

Drew and I will go live at halftime for this one and I’ll either try to middle this total or chase for more after a slow first half.