Championship Sunday

Need to kill some time before the games start today? We talked about everything we thought may matter for today’s championship games on the live stream (even though we led off with tennis talk). Also available wherever you get your podcasts:

Injuries 🤕

• Washington - G Sam Cosmi tore his ACL against the Lions and will likely be replaced this week up front by Trent Scott. Key defender DT Daron Payne (knee/finger) was also ruled out late in the week; some combination of Sheldon Day and rookie Jer'Zhan Newton will have to pick up the slack on the defensive line for him. DE Javontae Jean-Baptiste is listed as questionable after being limited due to a new shoulder injury.

• Philadelphia - QB Jalen Hurts is the primary concern for the Eagles, and while he’s not given a game-day designation, his knee injury is obviously on everyone’s mind. Philly once again ruled out WR Britain Covey (neck) and DT Byron Young (hamstring). Center Cam Jurgens is listed as questionable with a back injury. He missed some practice time, but the reporters close to the team seem to think he’s good to go. If he were to miss the game, Landon Dickerson would start in his stead, with Tyler Steen then stepping into Dickerson’s guard spot.

• Buffalo - S Taylor Rapp (hip) will be OUT for Sunday's game. LB Baylon Spector (calf/IR) was listed as questionable but eventually ruled out, as he’s not quite ready to return. Also listed as questionable is CB Christian Benford (concussion). Benford has participated in some practice this week, a hopeful sign that he’d be able to clear protocol, but also missed Friday with an excused absence for a “personal matter”. It’s unclear if he’ll play, and we may not find out until 90 minutes before game time. He’d be a big blow to this secondary, especially with Rapp already out.

• Kansas City is not doing much to dispel the rumors that they made a deal with the devil, as they have no one listed with a game-day injury status this week. 

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Weather ⛈

• WAS@PHI - Breezy, but not windy to the point of affecting the game. Maybe some gusts that get into the 20s early but dying off as the game goes on. Temps around 40 with no precipitation threats. No encore for last week’s snow 😔

• BUF@KC - Colder, around freezing, but even less wind, so it won’t be terrible conditions. There are no real chances of rain or snow here, either. Pretty innocuous weather for both games this week.

Situational 📆

• This is the FIFTH straight home game for the Eagles; in fact, they haven’t left the eastern seaboard since a November 24th trip to LA.

• Conversely, this is the fourth consecutive road game for the Commanders. Obviously, this game is a rematch from the regular season, with the divisional foes having playing already in weeks 11 and 16.

• The AFC Championship is also a rematch from an earlier game, with the Bills winning 30-21 (also in week 11) at home.

With the Eagles out to -6 and holding, I’m still tempted to back them for the third straight week. The defense looked great again last week, coming through in clutch moments against a quarterback with gobs of big-game experience and several elite weapons in the passing game. Even with Nakobe Dean (among others) out for the season, Vic Fangio has really put together elite game plans and made solid 2nd half adjustments on this run to the NFC Championship.

On the other side of the field, we just saw a team go to Detroit and lay a large number on a rested Lions team, keeping them at arm’s length for most of the game. Despite the rookie quarterback and a clearly worse roster, the Commanders looked like the team that was favored by a touchdown+ in that one.

It was a nice vindication for the Sam Darnold Pumpkin theory. Detroit’s defense regressed to what most thought they were, and the offense turned the ball over too many times to do what they needed to get back into the game. This week may not be as easy for the young signal caller nor for Dan Quinn’s defense.

With Sam Cosmi out, Washington is now facing the best pass rush they’ve seen in these playoffs without their best interior lineman, with our last memories of Jalen Carter being of him tearing apart the Rams front in key moments to close out a Divisional Round win. On the other side, Daron Payne being replaced by a rookie DT isn’t likely to do wonders in the quest to keep Saquon under 150 damn yards today.

I have no idea what my plan would be to stop this Philly rushing attack. Still, after seeing Barkley hit a couple of home runs in the playoffs, I would like to think that Quinn will find a scheme that doesn’t sell out on the back end and allow Saq to just scamper for the final 60 yards if (*when) he breaks through the first and second levels of the defense. I’m expecting plenty of success, but hopefully in smaller chunks.

After seeing Jalen Hurts display the mobility of a terracotta warrior on the safety last week, I wonder if the plan would be to work on pressuring him as much as possible in the hope of more mistakes. Easier said than done against a very good offensive line.

As much confidence as a team that’s gotten this far has to have, I think the Commanders’ brass knows that they’ll need to dominate the turnover battle again if they want to spend next week game planning instead of golfing.

My thesis for this one is just a much lower success rate for Washington, now facing a defense with elite players at all three levels. With the injuries in the trenches exacerbating the mismatches for Washington, I’m looking for the Eagles to dominate in key downs and the 4th down “luck” to run out a bit for Kingsbury.

Knowing they are the better team and seeing what caused the downfall of the Lions, I’m looking for the Eagles to lean into the meat and potatoes of what got them this far, avoiding risk and playing ball control football.

Eagles 23 - Commandos 17

BET: WAS/PHI Under 47 -108

I have no idea what to expect in the AFC title game. We certainly didn’t see the best the Chiefs had to offer last week, and one could argue that they should have lost that game if not for some lucky breaks (many have argued this). Despite it all, though, Kansas City once again finds themselves at home, healthy, and possibly getting their all-world quarterback a matchup against a defense that could be missing their best cornerback as well as a starting safety.

As I mentioned at length on this week’s podcast, I think this version of Josh Allen is much more mature than the Josh we saw in the previous three playoff matchups between these clubs (KC 3, BUF 0), but despite his linebacker build, he’s not going to be out there on defense tonight.

So, like last week’s Buffalo game, I’ll just be looking at spots to jump in live on the side or with some props and hoping for another banger. The rest of the morning will be spent watching Netflix and digging through the ATTD markets for some longer prices that merit a bet.

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