Saturday NFL Three Pack

GOOD MORNING! Bonus writing today from the road. Traveling for the holidays but I’d be remiss if I didn’t at least lightly go over the three games I’ll be ignoring my nieces and nephews for. 

Full Sunday newsletter out, as usual, tomorrow with the weather, injuries, my favorite bets, and all the rest but for now, some real quick thoughts on the three matchups today and a couple of bets I made.

• Market: Money came in on Minnesota in this one, pushing it down to a field goal for the road dogs from the -4 opener. The total has been bet back up from some early week under action that saw it as low as 38.5.

• Injuries: For Minnesota, Justin Jefferson is good to go, but they still quietly have a couple of offensive injuries that could cause issues. Starting Right Tackle Brian O’Neill and RB Alexander Mattison will miss the game for Minnesota. Ty Chandler and Kene Nwangwu will split the carries out of the backfield and David Quessenberry will get the nod at tackle. The Bengals just list a couple of guys as questionable: Tight end Drew Sample, guard Jackson Carman, and LB Joe Bachie. Sample is the name out of those that matters the most, but they have a pretty deep group of tight ends as well.

Who Blinks First? The Vikings defense has been humming right along over the past month under Brian Flores, but the Bengals offense seems to have also found a nice rhythm with Jake Browning stepping in for the injured Joe Burrow. This is the matchup that drew my eye first for obvious reasons, but I think the x-factor is likely how well you think Nick Mullens plays here. We only got to see a small sample of him in the win over Las Vegas, but it was certainly better than what Dobbs was bringing.

A short week to prep, missing some pieces on offense, on the road: seems like a tall task, but the defense likely keeps it within striking distance for him. This one feels like a game that hinges on a few small decisions made late by a couple of sneaky-good head coaches.

Final Verdict: I’m not going to overthink things today. The defense is playing well enough here and the market agrees that Minnesota will be in this one. Getting this at a decent price just on the other side of 21 makes it enticing.

Bengals Team Total UNDER 21.5 -110

• Market: The market is backing Maserati Mitch here, with the soft -3 at open seeing Steelers action that is getting this line very close to a pk’em at some shops. Not a ton of movement on the total

• Injuries: The good news was the extra time helped both star pass rushers for Pittsburgh clear the concussion protocol. T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith are good to go today. G Isaac Seumalo is questionable with a shoulder injury. The Colts will be getting CB Julius Brents back from an injury that’s kept him out for a while now. RT Braden Smith is out as well as LB Segun Olubi and still no Jonathan Taylor. Rookie Blake Freeland will get the nod at right tackle, he’s started quite a few games already this year filling in at both tackle spots. Olubi is mostly a special teams player.

It’s somehow been just as rough with Mitch under center but the Steelers still have themselves in a position to make the playoffs despite it all. The Colts found a little bump in the road last week, but by winning the four previous are also in the mix for an AFC Wildcard. So, while we saw a strength-on-strength matchup in the first game of the day, this one features more of a weakness on weakness with the Steelers offense vs the Colts D. Mitch Trubisky is a vet at this point and has the pieces around him to likely be able to do something, right?

Indoors against a pretty bad scoring defense with extra time to prep seems like he should be able to get it going. If I were a braver man, I think I’d consider this over. We seem to have the recipe for a toned-down repeat of TNF: a QB in Minshew that might set up the opposing offense with some bad turnovers and an offense that needs a bounce back against a bad defense.

I think this is a pretty fair line, all things considered, I’ll just be looking at the matchup that the Steelers should have a decent advantage in, even if Seumalo is out. The Colts run defense is very gettable; a look at rushing yards against the past four games (week 11 was a bye):

• Week 10: Zeke 54, Rhamondre 88

• Week 12: Rachaad White 100

• Week 13: Henry 102, Tyjae Spears 75

• Week 14: Joe Mixon 79

And it’s not just on the ground, as you saw last week with Chase Brown gashing them in the screen game as well. It’s a bit tough to sort out which running back to bet on though. It’s close to a 50/50 snap count split, but Harris seems to be getting a few more carries of late. Jaylen Warren probably has a little more explosive play possibility in him of the two.

While I like Warren a ton, the usage of late has me on Najee here. He’s been averaging three targets per game since the week six bye and should be able to get production when he has the ball in his hands against a bottom-ten run defense.

Najee Harris OVER 65.5 rushing + receiving yards

• Market: A little back and forth here, with Detroit seemingly the side that’s winning that battle, out to -4.5 again. The total was bet up to the 48 off a 46.5 opener.

• Injuries: The Lions have four players listed as questionable: LT Taylor Decker, C Frank Ragnow, WR Josh Reynolds, and DT Benito Jones. All four seem likely to go after practicing on Thursday. For the Broncos, LB Nick Bonitto is out. TE Greg Dulcich will also be out for apparently one more week despite being activated from the IR. OLB Jonathon Cooper and S P.J. Locke are listed as questionable.

The Pressure is on a bit for a Lions team that a month ago was in discussions for a top-two seed in the NFC. After dropping two divisional games in the past three weeks, they can nary afford any more slip-ups. If Minnesota were to win in the early slot, a loss would mean just a one-game lead over a Vikings team they need to face twice yet.

This is a fun matchup to think about, considering the injury reports. With the Lions’ offensive line seemingly back together versus a team that hasn’t been able to generate much of a pass rush without a blitz, perhaps Goff can take advantage of a defensive secondary that’s been feasting on some young/backup QBs for the past month. Honestly, the biggest issue for Detroit lately has just been horrible turnovers. If Goff stays clean and doesn’t make big mistakes, they should eat. Additionally, the two-headed running back attack has a very good situational match-up.

It’s a funny time for these teams to meet. Just as the Lions’ troubles have been mostly caused by turnovers, a big part of what makes the Broncos’ defense look good on paper is their ability to take the ball away (don’t get me wrong, they’re still playing well).

I don’t have a strong look in the betting markets here. I put Detroit in some fun moneyline parlays to have a rooting interest this evening, but think the -4.5 is about right. The Lions’ defense is playing poorly enough here that perhaps there’s still some room to back this over, but for now just some small bets on anytime TD scorers with some bigger prices:

Kalif Raymond anytime TD +950

Jameson Williams anytime TD +500

Adam Trautman anytime TD +650