No Belichick news yet, but Black Monday is well underway with a couple of coaches and front office personnel already jettisoned. The funniest of course was the Atlanta Falcons treating Black Monday like Black Friday and giving Arthur Smith the “Doorbusters” pink slip right at midnight.

Draft Order

We’ll get to the playoffs in a second. They are not the only thing locked into place after our regular-season finale. There is still some shuffling to be done in the back half of the draft order via the playoff results, but we’ve got the top 18 spots in the draft locked up.

Thinking back, there’s a good lesson here regarding thinking too hard about next year’s positioning. After the 2023 NFL Draft, the fun angle being discussed was the possibility of the Cardinals owning the top two picks in the draft.

Kyler was out, possibly for the season if the team deemed it so. The Texans (who traded their 2024 pick to Arizona) were working with an all-new coaching staff and a rookie QB. Theoretically, one of their picks could be 32nd!

I don’t expect the Texans to rip off four more wins, but it goes to show that we usually put too much stock into the “what-ifs” that far out and it made me chuckle.

The other interesting point on how the draft order hashed out is the distinct possibility that the first three teams may all take QBs. Again, back to the Cardinals: they may still get a WR1 or top OT even after winning a couple more games than expected.

Working on a mock, but it’s harder than it looks.

Next Year’s Schedule

This is just an excuse to include a chart I love from a good data viz guy.

It'll be a spell before we know the order, which games are in primetime, etc. but, based on the rotation of opponents and team’s finish positions, we know who everyone will have on the schedule next year.

Example: The Dallas Cowboy (dark blue triangle) will play:

• Row - Baltimore, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, plus its three division rivals twice each

• Column - other NFC division champs: Tampa Bay, San Francisco, Detroit

• Color - the rest of the NFC South: New Orleans, Atlanta, and Carolina

• Shape - cross-conference game with Houston

Playoff Matchups

We normally have 13-16 games to discuss on the Wednesday Night live stream/podcast and sometimes get pressed for time. I’m pumped to give some of these matchups a little extra shine and dig deeper into the games within the game, etc.

My initial thoughts:

• A little flummoxed by the total for Cleveland/Houston. First-time starter in Stroud versus a tough defense has me looking under but on the other hand, the Cleveland offense has come alive a bit with Flacco and Stroud hasn’t been too bad against stiff competition.

• I show some value on Miami +3.5 but it’s another spot where we have a QB making their first playoff start in Tua. Mahomes has traditionally been pretty good in the playoffs.

• The total for Pittsburgh/Buffalo is dropping like a rock based on weather reports a full week out. I get trying to stay in front of the move, but the weather shifts in a hurry sometimes.

• I think if the total move is correct (and maybe even if it’s not), 10 points is a ton for an experienced coaching staff and did end up backing the Steelers this morning at that price. Alex Highsmith game loading.

• Dallas will for sure be a popular teaser leg but I also show a little value on them in this spot as well. With the total ticking up and my number sitting even higher, I’ll likely be looking at the Dallas team total over.

• SNF: Stafford Revenge game. I lean towards the Rams +3.5 but it will be their third straight week traveling and the Detroit defense has gotten slightly healthier. Losing LaPorta is probably massive.

• MNF: need some firmer news on the Philly WRs before I’d want to jump in here. Tampa +2.5 is probably a nice teaser partner for Dallas, but Baker’s health is a big factor as well.

Black Monday

We’ll assume Bill Belichick parts ways with the Patriots at some point. I would think they’ll be giving him the courtesy of having a presser and not just feeding the news to Schefter like he’s some failed experiment that they are moving on from.

With that and the firings of Ron Rivera and Art Smith, we are now at six job openings:

New England, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Carolina, Atlanta, and Washington.

Still a possibility for change in a few other places. In order of likelihood: the Bears, the Saints, and the Jets. There have also been rumors of Mike Vrabel looking to leave his post and lord help us if the Cowboys lose Sunday…

I’ll assume we get Bill and one more opening. Not sure who unlucky number seven will be, but I wanted to rank one more coach. Here are my top seven power-rated candidates:

1. Bill Belichick, Patriots HC: I think he still has some tread on those tires

2. Ben Johnson, Lions OC: The Lions OC has put out a great offensive product for two full years. It’s time

3. Jim Harbaugh, Michigan HC: it’s been a while, but he’s been successful in the pros before

4. Brian Callahan, Bengals OC: The players matter, but at some point, you have to give coaching credit as well, especially after helping to cobble together an offense with Jake Browning for a portion of the season.

5. Eric Bieniemy, Commanders OC: Honestly, I just like a guy willing to call 50+ passing plays even when he’s forced to play a bad QB.

6. Dave Canales, Buccanneers OC: He’s gotten Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield to the playoffs.

7. Ejiro Evero, Panthers DC: Another coordinator who’s done a lot with a little and is a bright spot on a bad team.

Honorable Mentions (basically other names I’ve heard tossed around):

• Dan Quinn, Cowboys DC

• Frank Smith, Dolphins OC

• Mike Macdonald, Ravens DC

• Raheem Morris, Rams DC

• Kellen Moore, Chargers, OC

• Bobby Slowik, Texans OC

• Thomas Brown, Panthers OC

• Aaron Glenn, Lions DC

It’s a free country and you have the internet if you’re reading this, so feel free to tell me where I’m wrong, how wrong I am, and how ugly/heavy/promiscuous my mother is on Twitter. (or just who your dream head coach is for a team you root for.)

Shorter newsletters most likely this week with fewer games, but I will still take a look at the early market moves tomorrow, update my power ratings on Wednesday, dive into the draft a bit on Thursday, and prep for the weekend on Friday.