Fun Thanksgiving Day, unless you bet against the waxing gibbous moon and saw your Lions bets go up in flames with another week of Goff looking like he’s never held a football before. Despite it all, I still found at least one winner on the props and both halftime totals we played on the YouTube streams ended up winning. Plus, you know, 10 hours of football.

I mean, I can’t even shit on the Amazon A.I. for this game. It should have been Tua and the Track Team versus Aaron Rodgers. Just bad luck for us that the leftover pie will be accompanied by Tim Boyle I guess.

Market

Zach Wilson moved the market here! Maybe the Miami steam was always going to come but, I’m gonna stick with the QB downgrade narrative. After opening +7.5, and the announcement that it’ll be Tim Boyle time in NY, we saw the road favorite get bet to as high as -10 before there were some bites on the Jets to get it down to the current Miami -9.5.

The total has seen slight movement to the under. From the Sunday opener of 42, under bets have taken this down to 40.5 (maybe Tim Boyle can be blamed for this as well).

Injuries

Sadly, after some hopefulness, we found out this morning that De’Von Achane won’t be playing for Miami today after reinjuring his knee last week.

In fact, all the players listed on Miami’s injury report are on the offensive side of the ball. T Terron Armstead, G Robert Hunt, T Austin Jackson, G Lester Cotton, TE Durham Smythe, WR Chase Claypool, and FB Alec Ingold are all hit with the questionable tag in addition to Achane. Backup G Robert Jones is doubtful.

I did read and see that no interior offensive linemen were elevated, so the outlook on Cotton and Hunt should be good.

For the Jets, CB Michael Carter is doubtful with a hamstring injury.

OT Mekhi Becton, OT Billy Turner, OT Duane Brown, depth TE Kenny Yeboah, and LB Sam Eguavoen are all listed as questionable.

Becton is expected to miss and the new QB will have to play behind more replacement players on the O-Line. The activation of Duane Brown does lead me to believe he’ll play though.

New QB, Same Jets?

So, is Tim Boyle worse than Zach Wilson? The answer is probably yes. Despite the jokes and memes, Wilson has had some moments where he’s looked like a viable NFL quarterback, doing so behind a battered, beaten, and just bad offensive line for most of it. Boyle lacks even the small amount of experience Wilson brings to the table and has been a walking turnover when he has seen the field.

Outside of some mop duty and coming off the bench last week, Boyle has really only played in three games (all losses) for the 2021 Lions team that started the season 0-10-1. He threw six interceptions and fumbled once in those three games. He has now thrown nine interceptions in just 120 career attempts (pretty high, the league average this year is about 2% compared to his 7.5%).

Maybe the one thing to look for in this run-up to the game would be the injuries on Miami’s offensive line. They’ve had to shuffle around a bit and have had some nice performances from role players when needed, but this is a tough pass rush to go up against and four of the five starters are listed as questionable on the final injury report. The Jets have one of the highest pressure rates in the league at over 25% and hit the Quarterback at a higher rate than anyone.

None of this may matter if Miami continues to stick to getting the ball out of Tua’s hands quickly though. I’m just trying to think of anything positive for the Jets, man.

With both defenses playing well and both teams suffering offensive line injuries (and on a short week), maybe the reign of overs we saw yesterday will quickly come to an end here. I think the total may just come down to how many times Tim Boyle gives the Dolphins a short field off a turnover.

Prediction: Miami 26 - Jets 12

Betting:

I suppose I’ll be cheering for the Jets to at least lose straight up in the next few weeks to quash any ideas Aaron Rodgers has about coming back early from his injury. I’m not a doctor, but it does seem like a phenomenally bad idea compared to fully healing with a whole offseason.

Anyway, sometimes the obvious answer is the right one, I’ll back a game state where Miami is throttling the Jets, and my guy Raheem gets some heavy work on a Friday. This number got beat up a little already this morning, and I’m posting the worst of it, but if you hunt around, you can likely find a little better than this.

Mostert Rushing Yards over 66.5 -115

good luck have fun.

NO DAYS OFF:

The boys don’t care if it’s a pseudo-holiday, they’ll be getting together and going over a couple of their favorite prop plays.

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Well, my favorite teaser leg was the Lions. So, an auspicious start to things so far. After seeing the injury report for the the Packers, I said to myself, “all they have to do is not turn the ball over a bunch of times early on like last week and we’re golden!” No such luck, but we move forward and look at what’s left for the week.

Last week: could have been special if Sam Howell hadn’t done what he did. Almost had the clean sweep, instead, one of my favorite legs took down some teasers and made me hate the Washington franchise even more.

Still looks to be an okay week heading into Sunday’s possibilities with a couple of good offenses getting points at the top of the list. Even though I’ll be rooting for the Saints, Atlanta can certainly keep things close at home and you know what? I may just put the Bengals and Browns together to feel alive. Imagine a Jake Browning/Dorian Thompson-Robinson teaser finding its way to glory.

Week 12 Teaser Rankings (Best to Worst)

I’ll check back in on Sunday morning with the bets for the week, feels like I’m about to solve the NFL. Looking forward to that.