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The biggest injuries of the week may have come on Thursday, with the Cowboys losing two BIG pieces on the defensive side of the ball and Malik Nabers being concussed. Sunday did see a few key injuries as well, though, with Anthony Richardson and Jonathan Taylor banged up for the Colts, Christian Watson exiting the game for the Packers, and Rashee Rice looking like his sophomore season may be over in Kansas City.

Like always, I’ll keep my injury notes in an article that I update a few times per day as I go:

My best take ahead of Sunday

The Vikings’ offense would keep rolling against a beat-up secondary. We bet the team total over as the “secret pod play of the week” on the podcast, but I also went to bat for the Packers offense to make a little noise at home this week. They took a little longer to get going than I would have liked, but in the end, this total ended up being a couple of touchdowns too low. The two teams combined for 800+ yards and 46 1st downs.

My worst take ahead of Sunday.

It’s wild how quickly a team can go from bottom three in the league to above average just by fixing one position.

I bet money that Jayden Daniels would take even a small step back, and it would cost me. This team may not have the defense to win in the postseason, but the offense that Kliff is calling and Daniels is executing is good enough to get them there. Hell, with the Cowboys and Eagles hurt and struggling, they could win the damn division.

My Good take that didn’t work out.

I thought that the Rams’ combination of Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford could elevate a bad surrounding cast. Some big turnovers and a very makeable field goal flipped this one, but we also didn’t see the usual big mistake from Caleb outside of his fumble. After some strange results both ways over the first four weeks, I’m not sure I’m running to the window to get involved with this Rams team on or against going forward.

Market

The Lookahead price here was Miami -2 and despite opening on the other side of pk’em, this has drifted back that way, probably on the news that Tim Boyle won’t be the starter for the Dolphins this week.

The Total has pretty much only gone one direction after being 39.5 last week and opening 38 on Sunday night. There was some resistance at 36.5 and we’ve sat at 37 for a few days now.

Injuries

The Titans have some big question marks defensively coming in. DT Jeffery Simmons (elbow) is doubtful, while CB L'Jarius Sneed (hamstring) and S Amani Hooker (face) are questionable.

The Dolphins will be without OT Terron Armstead and CB Kendall Fuller after they remain in the concussion protocol. LB David Long seems unlikely to play as well with his doubtful tag. There was some hope that RB Raheem Mostert could return, but he will miss at least one more week as he’ll be sitting this one out.

QB Skylar Thompson (ribs) and WR Malik Washington (quad) are also questionable.

Matchup

Last week we saw a painfully underprepared QB take the field against a good Seattle secondary and give us about what we expected. Tim Boyle came in after Skylar Thompson was injured and gave us more of the same. It was, for all accounts, a completely uncompetitive game after about the 1st quarter.

Some of this fell on the Miami defense, but in the same way I talked about a team elevating itself way up the hierarchy of the NFL by simply finding the right rookie QB and adding him to the mix, the opposite has always been true and we’ve seen it every year. Despite all the skill position studs on the Miami offense, having a QB who’d unable to read pressures or execute this offense will still get you results like we saw last week.

Now we’re on a little more level ground against a bad Titans offense and a defense that’s been beaten up a bit over the past two weeks. Maybe we should have some hope for Pro Bowler Tyler Huntley. I’d love it for that to be the case, but even with the extra day to prepare, he’s only been in town for about two weeks and likely isn’t going to have a grasp on the entirety of the playbook.

I suppose this matchup could quickly come down to “which QB makes a couple massive mistakes”, but truthfully the answer may be both. We joke about this in games where there is high volatility, but the side and total may just come down to which 20-yard line the fumbles and picks happen on.  

I will say that Huntley has been able to manage an offense when called upon, and after last week’s disaster, you’d think McDaniel would be trying anything to simplify ways to get his playmakers the ball in space without taxing the new QB too much.

Betting

Nothing for me in this but I will be interested in how the game plans look early and possibly will be looking at some live prop bets on players that are getting involved with what McDaniel and Callahan roll out there.

I have my eye on some Achane reception props that may get clicked if I get too antsy, but for now, I’ll just hate watching this all-time QB matchup and waiting for the late game to start.

Market

The lookahead was fairly close to the opener and we didn’t see big adjustments on this side when it opened at -4 Sunday. Action both ways, but not enough to push it much off of the 4.

The total has come down a bit after last weeks games. The lookahead was 48.5, opening at 48 and beating bet down to as low as 46.5 before finding some over money back up to 47.

Injuries

Seattle is very injured along the defensive front with DTs Leonard Williams and Byron Murphy still out. Edge rushers Boye Mafe and Uchenna Nwosu are also ruled out for tonight. In addition to those four, LB Jerome Baker is listed as questionable.

Kenneth Walker will return after missing a couple of weeks with an oblique injury.

The Lions will be without center Frank Ragnow, but have their star TE playing. Sam LaPorta will reportedly return tonight for the Detroit offense.

On the other side of the ball for the Lions: CB Ennis Rakestraw is listed as questionable, S Brian Branch seems unlikely to go, and he’s listed as doubtful.

Matchup

On paper, this looks like a fun game-planning session for Seattle OC Ryan Grubb. Detroit uses a lot of man coverage and is banged up in the secondary. Why shouldn’t DK Metcalf eat here? Getting a fully healthy RB room along with the weapons on offense, you just need to scheme your way around the Aidan Hutchinson and the Detroit pass rush a bit. I don’t know if that means getting rid of the ball on short stuff more often or a ton or 12 with RBs and TEs helping out in coverage. Either way, I’ll be disappointed if Geno doesn’t have a fairly solid stat line.

The Lions on the other hand have seemingly been working out their identity still. We’ve seen spots in games where they were absolutely able to impose their will on the ground, but if they want to build on last season’s playoff success, the passing game needs to find some consistency. Sam LaPorta will play tonight, which is an nice boost to that unit, but they’ll also be playing without starting center Frank Ragnow.

The mismatch on the other side is the fact that the injuries for Seattle have ravaged their defensive line a bit. Despite Ragnow’s absence, the rest of this Detroit offensive line is pretty damn good, and the backs and the run scheme aren’t too shabby, either. Seattle may have to use some pieces like Witherspoon creatively again to try to stop this strong Detroit ground game. If Macdonald can’t find a way to dial up the right defenses to get the Lions off the field, it may be a long night in Motown.

Betting

I’m very close to the market price here with my raw power ratings, but like the Seahawks a bit as an underdog here with the way we’ve seen both sides of the ball develop over the first three games under the new coaching staff. I think this is going to be a close one either way and would be fine seeing Seattle drop a game, as long as it’s only by a field goal.

BET: Seahawks +4 -110