We’ll be hitting up the 32nd and final preview (Kansas City) tonight on the YouTube channel at 7 ET, followed by us fumbling through simulating the full season out using our numbers to see what they are blindly telling us to bet vs the current market prices.

It is always released as a podcast after the fact, but the Simulation Extravaganza won’t be out til Monday, with all the AFC West previews clogging the feed, so you’ll have to check that out on YouTube if you want to catch it early.

So, here are some quick thoughts on what may turn out to be a pretty fun division this year if the rest of the pack can pick up the slack. This time complete with the schedule matrix files for every team courtesy of Drew Dinsick.

Same as last time, “wildcard” is just something I’m monitoring a bit closer as I think it has a higher chance to affect my rating early in the season.

Houston Texas

They are currently slated to be a 10 or 11-win team in my ratings. It feels like anyone nitpicking this team is trying too hard and sometimes you just have to accept that they lucked into the right guys at the important spots.

Strengths

The whole damn offense I suppose. I don’t fully understand the reasoning for regression outside of “regression happens”. Defenses do tend to catch up and adjust to what’s working against them, but good coordinators stay ahead.

I guess this is the year where we find out if Bobby Slowik is a good OC or if he stumbled into some outlier performances from his key players last year. There were hiccups, and the run game and O Line left (and leaves) something to be desired, but they still finished with 10 wins and got the young QB/HC combo some playoff experience.

Weaknesses

Coverage unit. Stingley is turning out to be a good young corner, but past that, it gets dicey. They are likely starting a rookie at free safety and the other outside corner with Jalen Pitre rounding out the CB trio (not great) and Jimmy Ward trying to be in a bunch of places at once, helping to plug holes. A good pass rush will be a boon to this beleaguered unit, but it’s not enough to fix it.

Wildcard

It's hard to say what would have me moving this rating early on in the season. Feels like the answer is “backsliding towards what we’d expect for a guy as inexperienced as Stroud”. Even then, I think I’d give him the benefit of the doubt after what we saw from him as the offense worked itself into shape last year. Everything I’ve seen in preseason leads me to believe what they did is repeatable, and the defensive line may even be upgraded if that was a concern for anyone.

Indianapolis Colts

Nine wins at face value, but with a heaping helping of potential upside here. If the QB has a breakout, suddenly, it’s a very real two-team race for this division title.

Strengths

Offensive Line. Quenton Nelson may be the third or fourth-best player on this line. Better in run blocking than pass pro last year, but center Ryan Kelly did have a 94% pass block win rate last year, and several other members of this unit rated very high in run block win rates. Nice bounceback for the unit.

Weaknesses

Coverage again, I think. Similar to Houston, you’ve got one good corner surrounded by guys that offenses will be able to pick on. Kenny Moore is a fine coverage CB but, he excels at, and was mostly used, as a slot corner. Meaning it’s replacement level (JuJu Brents) or below (2nd-year man Jaylon Jones) on the outside. Do me a favor and start naming WRs they’ll face over the first three weeks.

Wildcard

I think at least 12 of these are going to be “this QB has a wide range of outcomes” and this is maybe one of the bigger ones outside of the rookies. We saw a very small sample of A-Rich and still have to base some of our priors on how he played in college. Still, a whole nother year of prepping in camp and working with Steichen and Cooter may have him looking even more polished. I’m ready to adjust wildly based on how he looks early though.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Seven or eight win team by my numbers for now. Just haven’t been successful in building a team around the young QB or appointing the right leadership over the past few years.

Strengths

You still have a fairly good quarterback, and eventually, a good QB elevates the team around him. Maybe he isn’t the guy, but it’s still early, and the flashes of high-end play look damn good at times.

20+ turnovers last year. We’ll find out if that was an outlier or a warning sign I guess.

Weaknesses

O Line is still a problem. 27th and 29th in run block and pass block win rate last year, respectively. Adding Mitch Morse is nice, but they certainly didn’t do enough to improve this area for me to get excited. I’m expected more of the same.

Wildcard

How good can the defense be?

A new defensive coordinator and a couple of nice additions to the team in Arik Armstead, Ronald Darby, and Darnell Savage. There looks to be enough guys who are close enough to “good” in the secondary and along the defensive line that the pass defense has a good chance to improve this year. If the upside pushes them into the top-10, life will be a lot easier for an offense featuring Gabe Davis as their WR1.

Tennessee Titans

This was one of the “fourth-ranked” teams that I did have a little hope for. Currently looking at them to win 6-7 games, but most of these numbers are fairly elastic and have plenty of room to move up.

Strengths

This is a decent group of receivers that doesn’t get a ton of love, maybe because of the situation. DeAndre Hopkins and Calvin Ridley are one-two combo that plenty of teams would be happy to have. Hopkins was over 2 yards per route run last year and now gets a hell of a partner on the outside PLUS Tyler Boyd in the slot.

Weaknesses

Starting QB is still a negative, and I think most would agree that even if he surprises Will Levis’ ceiling isn’t sky-high. He only started nine games, but finished in the “Minshew” part of the EPA/play hierarchy. A better set of weapons and more time to learn how to be an NFL QB helps, but for now I still have him rated with the rookies and Daniel Jones.

Wildcard

2023’s 28th rated EPA/play defense + a bunch of good players = ???

They just traded for Rams linebacker Ernest Jones and have the opportunity to be a surprise “good-but-not-great” defense this year, in my opinion. Rookie big man T’Vondre Sweat seems to have had a good camp, and the rebuilt secondary might be kinda nasty. This could be a fun storyline early on that flies under the radar as they might not look as good as they actually are taking on some very good offenses over the first eight weeks.

I am starting in on another division after I send this and prepping to talk to the Chiefs tonight. As always, hit me up if you think I missed something and want to yell at me about it.