AFC North Ratings

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This time next week, you’ll be neck deep in it. Shaking your head over some losses you never saw coming.

Hopefully, you took a little time and enjoyed the holiday weekend before the next 21 weeks hit you.

Three more divisions before I sum it all up for my first power ratings of the year, this time the real Black and Blue division:

Baltimore Ravens

My top team, with the only disagreement between the market and myself, is the distance between them and the Bengals (I think the gap should be a little bigger.) My 12th-rated offense and 2nd-rated (for now) defense give me an 11-12 win team and my 3rd overall squad to start the 2024 season.

Strengths

Michael Pierce and Justin Madubuike are probably the best defensive interior duo in the league. 33 pressures and 13 sacks for Madubuike, while Pierce ate up blocks with his massive frame and ended the season with the fourth-highest run stop grade from PFF. The scheme and great linebacker player behind them helped (along with Kyle Hamilton doing everything), but this entire front was a massive part of last year’s success.

Also, a two-time MVP at QB.

Weaknesses

The Offensive Line is a huge question mark for me. Essentially starting two rookies with Roger Rosengarten at RT and Andrew Vorhees at LG (Vorhees tore his ACL at the ‘23 combine and was snatched up in the late rounds and stashed). Ronnie Stanley is a well-known name but has been in decline from the highs of 2019-2020. The Ravens have a very good center in Tyler Linderbaum, but from there, it’s very murky.

Wildcard

Did they lose the coaches that matter this offseason?

Zach Orr is now your defensive coordinator with Mike Macdonald in Seattle, and even his assistant (last year’s assistant head coach and defensive line coach) Anthony Weaver, now the DC in Miami. Hell, they even lost their DBs coach to Tennessee (also took a DC position).

We’ve seen good/great defenses simply move on and find another guy to step in and keep the gravy train rolling (Robert Salah to Demeco Ryans in San Fran). But, we’ve seen the opposite as well, where the new guy’s ideas just didn’t mesh with the personnel or simply work (Demeco Ryans to Steve Wilks in San Fran).

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Cincinnati Bengals

Close to Baltimore but still a half step behind in my ratings. Last year’s injury to Burrow makes it hard to completely grade the 2023 season, but I’ll be sticking to the early grades for a bit as I wait to see what this defense looks like this year. 10.4 win median projection right now, close to the cutline for what I consider a playoff team right now, but still firmly in.

Strengths

They lost a coordinator and a starting WR, but they still have the important pieces. Burrow, Chase, Higgins, Chase Brown, and coach Zac Taylor.

As I said, they did lose Brian Callahan, but Zac Taylor has been the one calling plays for the past five years, and he’s slowly been rising up the ranks of coaches who deserve some respect. Having a strong QB/Play caller nucleus can overcome a ton of other deficiencies (like the world’s slowest offensive line rebuild).

Weaknesses

The defense of the front seven could be a problem again, although sometimes things work out in funny ways when you address weak spots in the “spine” of the defense.

Adding a couple of good safeties in Geno Stone and Vonn Bell helps the linebackers, which in turn helps the defensive front, even sans D.J. Reader. I still think this is an issue and will be going forward, but between the free-agent acquisitions and the youth they drafted to help upfront, maybe it’ll improve.

Wildcard

Probably gotta be the Ja’Marr Chase saga at this point. I’m as high on Andrei Iosivas as anyone, but asking him to step up as WR2 if Chase were to miss time with his holdout, is obviously not ideal.

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Cleveland Browns

Another tough team to judge based on the 2023 results. They did a great job in a pinch and won a bunch of games with their defense and a guy who jumped off his couch and onto the stage at the NFL Honors. Rated as my 15th-best team right now due to some big question marks on the offensive side of the ball, somewhere around 9-10 wins on average.

Strengths

Still a nightmare defense to scheme against defensively. Za'Darius Smith and Myles Garrett had 19.5 sacks between them with others like Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah and Shelby Harris also bringing something to the pass rush. The secondary doesn’t have a superstar, but it also doesn’t really have weak links, leaving opposing offensive coordinators with a hell of a puzzle each week as they try to sort out the best plan of attack.

Weaknesses

Lost Flacco.

Kidding, sort of.

Still this team needs to find a bit of an identity offensively, and it’ll take consistent play from the QB and skill position players to get there. Chubb is recovering from a catastrophic knee injury, Watson is yet to get comfortable in the systems and they’ll be trying in integrate a new WR (Jeudy) again this year. The Flacco thing was such a wild ride; it’s easy to forget that this offense was inconsistent for big parts of the year.

Wildcard

Watson’s health is kind of worrying me again. Last year was confusing, I blame some of it on the reporting for the mixed messages we got each week. He finally ended up REALLY hurting his shoulder and having surgery.

Sounds like he’s good to go for the most part. But we now have a QB who’s torn both ACLs and is coming off an injury to his throwing shoulder. Forgive me if I’m approaching with caution.

Pittsburgh Steelers

They still have a strong defense, a savvy coach, and a team that seems to get the most out of what they have year after year. Clearly, they are fourth of four in this division for now with the quarterback situation. 25th-rated offense, 5th-rated defense in my numbers. Could finally break the streak for Tomlin, I have them at 6.5 wins.

Strengths

T.J. Watt, Alex Highsmith, Cam Heyward, Patrick Queen, Minkah Fitzpatrick. Plenty of others to throw in there as well as solid support pieces, but the nucleus of this defense makes this a team that can keep you within striking distance and win close games.

Weaknesses

“If you have two quarterbacks, you actually have none.” — John Madden

Especially if they’re both sort of bad. From the standpoint of cost, both moves made sense. It’d didn’t take much to get these guys on the roster. Unfortunetely, neither is looking they are going to suddenly turn into something they haven’t been over the past few years. It again puts an enormous strain on this defense to keep them in close games and hope for the best.

Wildcard

Arthur Smith comes to town, and I’m just not sure how that’s going to look. It's hard to put much stock into preseason game plans, but I expecting a strong run scheme and plenty of tight end usage, and from there, I’m not so sure. George Pickens seems to have some untapped potential, but we all saw how frustrating it was in Atlanta getting Drake London involved at times. I'm plenty excited to watch the week one “revenge game” simply for the Atlanta offense, but keeping an eye on how the Steeler's game plan looks when they have the ball is a high priority as well.

Have a great Monday Tuesday! We’ll finish up with the West(s) and get ready to bet on Thursday Night Opener Football.