More quick thoughts as we do the countdown to the season opener now LESS than a week

If you do want some longer versions of a team, your team, or any team just to get caught up, we’ve completed all 32 previews and have them in a tidy little playlist which will open if you click this KC preview image below. On to the AFC East.

Buffalo Bills

Mild adjustment down from my initial numbers with LB Matt Milano on the IR to start the season. He matters in run stop, coverage, and will be missed. Still ended up with the highest grade in the division for me, with 10.9 wins as my projection. I have both the offense and defense rated as 9th best in the league.

Strengths

Joshua Patrick Allen. Some silly talk on the Twitter about him being overrated, but all he’s done is score 40 TDs/year and at least one playoff win for the past four years. At least two dozen NFL fanbases would push their grandma into traffic for that sort of production.

Weaknesses

Well, the easy answer is the WR room, but the tougher questions will be answered on the other side of the ball (I’ll get into that below).

Mack Hollins, Curtis Samuel, Khalil Shakir, and rookie Keon Coleman don’t exactly strike fear into the hearts of opposing defenses. Someone will need to step into that WR1 role, but between the lot of them + Marquez Valdes-Scantling, the closest anyone on this list has been to a 1,000-yard season is Samuel’s 851-yard effort in 2020 down in Carolina.

Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid are likely in line for some heavy usage if no one claims the throne.

Wildcard

Can this defense make it through some injuries again? Matt Milano is already on the IR and rookie Cole Bishop is banged up in what’s become a very thin group of Safeties. Corner Taron Johnson also missed some practice and is worth keeping an eye on as the Bills are teetering on the edge of a cluster injury in their coverage unit before the season even starts.

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Miami Dolphins

Just a hair behind the leaders, I had them second before adjustments and don’t feel like moving them around in the newsletter. So, apologies to Jets fans, I have them closer to the top than the ‘phins. Projecting 10.7 wins in South Beach.

Strengths

Hot, Nasty Speed at WR and RB. If everyone is healthy and the officials aren’t cracking down too hard on Miami pushing the envelope on the pre-snap motion, this is a nightmare offense to scheme against. Hell, they even drafted a THIRD speedy running back in Jaylen Wright (which, to be fair, Mostert is 32 years old somehow).

Weaknesses

Massive turnover on the defensive side of the ball may leave us where we ended last season: with a horrible pass rush. Christian Wilkins is gone, and Andrew Van Ginkel is gone. Bradley Chubb will stay on the PUP list for now. This leaves you rookie Chop Robinson and Jaelen Phillips (coming off an Achilles injury) as your rushing OLBs.

The new defensive coordinator, Anthony Weaver, is drawing high praise from his players, but that’s usually what you hear in camp, isn’t it?

He did come here from Baltimore where he worked with Seattle’s now-head coach Mike McDonald though. Last year the Ravens became the first team in history to lead the league in points allowed (16.5 per game), sacks (60), and takeaways (31).

Wildcard

Aside from seeing how a major defensive overhaul goes, the O-line is a big mystery as well. The interior is already banged up with Isaiah Wynn starting the year on PUP and presumptive center Aaron Brewer dealing with a hand injury. They have super-sub Liam Eichenberg ready in the wings, he’s played at all five positions and can fill in, but not at two spots at once.

If Brewer cannot go, it’d force them to play undrafted rookie Andrew Meyer. Info from the coaching staff on this has been a little spotty, but it sounds like they have a starting center who’s hand ailment is keeping him from properly gripping a ball (which is a big part of snapping said ball). Something I’m keeping an eye on.

New York Jets

Projected for 10.8 wins and currently my top defense, there is a ton of room for this team to jump up immediately based on the offense and how things look coming out of the gates.

Strengths

NASTY Defense should be back. Elite players at all three levels in Quinnen Williams, C.J. Mosley, and Sauce Gardner. Last year, this was your #3 team in defensive EPA/play and DVOA. It’ll be exciting to see them put in some better situations with an offense that should be miles more competent than the 2023 version.

The fly in the ointment here is the Haason Reddick situation. I’m hopeful that they just add a bunch of performance incentives to his current deal and get him on the damn field.

Weaknesses

Not knowing if a super old QB coming off a major injury is going to be good? I have to keep my expectations in check here, despite him being an MVP not that long ago.

To be clear, I think he lied to us last fall when he said he was ready to go. This is a major injury and Aaron Rodgers is no spring chicken. Still an elite football mind with gobs of experience, but every second that passes since we last saw him play at a high level just instills more doubt.

Wildcard

Players on offense not named Garrett or Breece.

Tight End Tyler Conklin is reliable, newly signed WR Mike Williams has been anything but. Xavier Gipson was a UDFA that stuck with the team last year as a punt returner. To compete with Buffalo and Miami, and on a grander scheme the rest of the AFC, someone’s going to have to take some leaps forward in this offense.

New England Patriots

My 31st-rated offense and 7th-best defense: a recipe for success 50 years ago. Projected for 3.9 to 5.4 wins in 2024, depending on what system I’m using. Either way, it’s likely a forgettable year on they way to whatever is next.

Strengths

Defense may not be in the top five, but the floor feels like it’s still a top ten unit. I have them ranked fairly high, but we’ll see if they can maintain that level with a clearly substandard offense out there. We’ve seen elite defensive units start to tail off after long enough periods of having to carry the team. I suppose that could be their downfall here.

Weaknesses

Leadership. Gone are the days of you know who. Already, the vultures are swooping in to nitpick how things are being handled, with dozens of opinions on how short Mayo’s presser was the other day.

Still, what are the odds that new head coach Jerrod Mayo is even within spitting distance of Bill Belichick’s skills as a leader? It’s not an indictment of him, it’s just the reality of how good this team had it for a couple decades.

(also, the offensive line, but I suppose lots of things could have made the “weakness” list for New England)

Wildcard

When we see Maye?

As mentioned, it was a short, to-the-point presser announcing Brissett as the starter. Already much argued about online, there doesn’t seem to be an ideal spot to insert the rookie QB into the lineup, considering this schedule and the group of players he’ll be working with. It’s not a question that has a clear answer.

Truthfully, I don’t think it’ll make a huge difference to my ratings, I just want to see what the kid has to offer.

Have a great Friday! I’ll be back with more thoughts, and eventually, some bets.