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2024 Power Numbers
Season Previews Start Now! 32 Teams to Solve before the Hall of Fame Game...
A bit of a hiatus as we slog through the downtime between the NFL draft and the actual start of camps. Outside of Sunday night/Monday mornings during the season, this is the period I spend the biggest portion of my day reading. I’m sure there are folks who know a ton about every single person on the summer rosters (it’s up to 90 guys per team so 2,880 players), but I do have to rely on others to get me to where I need to be to start betting the NFL in September August.
So, this will be a short one, just going over the plan for the next two months. We’ll be back to a more regular schedule with team previews a few times per week over the next couple of months. Haven’t figured out the order yet, but I may just randomize them since alphabetical or by division just seems boring to me personally.
Drew and I went over our process a little a few weeks back on the podcast and in the YouTube channel. As is often the case, we went in without an outline, talked to each other for like 90 minutes and left with some ideas for how to tweak our processes a bit heading into this year.
We also had a bit of a live, on-the-air production meeting for what the season team previews will look like starting in July.
So some important dates:
Next Week: Team preview articles start
July 8th: Deep Dive Podcast Team Power Rating shows start
August 1st: The Hall of Fame Game. I’ll damn sure be betting preseason ball again, some nice money to be had.
September 4th: First Deep Dive Game by Game breakdown pod
September 5th: Season OPENER
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I'll spend one last weekend really taking in the golf, and then we hit the ground running on Monday, full-bore NFL. Hoping to create some attack surface for you to spend some more time digging in on these teams rather than just giving some opinions on each positional group and throwing out a power number.
I think the market and the market makers probably have a pretty good grip on roughly how good each team’s offense and defense will look this year, so I hope to find a few “unanswered questions” where we can plant some flags one way or the other and differentiate the ratings from the consensus.
Sometimes, it’ll be in the summer, but more often than not, these questions need to be answered over the course of the first few weeks once we see actual gameplay, actual game plans, and real-time adjustments from teams. Being ahead of the curve on your adjustments in the season's first quarter should yield results. It’s never easy, but praying to reap/sow and all that by tightening things up.
So, I’ll write back on Monday after I pick a team to finish my research and numbers, and we’ll review anything that matters. Then we’ll repeat that 31 more times, and in the meantime, look at the futures markets a bit, bet on preseason games, and even take a quick vacation before the football season starts.
New Coaching, new coordinators, new (possible) schemes
Free Agents and how they fit (especially QBs)
Rookies that’ll matter (again, especially QBs)
Departures and how much they’ll matter (another ‘especially QBs’)
Roster Depth, or the lack thereof
How teams might adjust against you
Injuries that will linger into the season (bonus if it’s a QB)
You probably have a favorite team or at least one you follow closely. If there’s anything you want me to look at, cover, or would hate to see me miss, hit me up. Have a good weekend.